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bgnbd spreadsheet note - Bruce Hardie

Implementing the BG/NBD Model forCustomer Base Analysis in IntroductionThis note describes how to implement the BG/NBD model for customerbase analysis1using Microsoft Excel. There are three key stages to theimplementation of this model:1. estimating the model parameters,2. generating the aggregate sales forecast given these parameter esti-mates, and3. predicting a particular customer s future purchasing, given informationabout his past behavior and the parameter specific steps are outlined in sections 3 5 below. Section 2 briefly de-scribes the nature of the data used for model calibration.

Let us consider the first time point, t =1/7 (row 7).Looking at equation (1), the ‘z’ argument of the Gaussian hypergeometric function is t/(α + t); this is given in cell D7.

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