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Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

XiContentsForeword xvPreface xixChapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business forecasting Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market (Charles K. Re Corr) Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John Boylan) Forecastability: A New Method (Sean Schubert) Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? (Stephan Kolassa) Defining Demand for Demand forecasting (Michael Gilliland) Using forecasting to Steer the Business : Six Principles (Steve Morlidge) The Beauty of forecasting (David Orrell) 76 Chapter 2 Methods of Statistical forecasting Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster (Chris Chatfield) New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts (Paul Goodwin) How to Forecast Data Containing Outliers (Eric Stellwagen) Selecting Your Statistical forecasting Level (Eric Stellwagen) When Is a Flat-line Forecast Appropriate?

International Journal of Forecasting is an important piece worth mentioning in any consideration of fundamental issues. Spyros Makridakis is very well recognized as lead author of the standard forecasting text, Forecasting: Methods and Applications, and of the M-series fore-casting competitions. Through his books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black

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