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FORECASTING

FORECASTING . Module 4. FORECASTING Predict the next number in the pattern: a) , , , , , ? b) , , , , , ? c) , , , , , , , , ? FORECASTING Predict the next number in the pattern: a) , , , , , b) , , , , , c) , , , , , , , , Outline What is FORECASTING ? Types of forecasts Time-Series FORECASTING Good forecasts Monitoring forecasts FORECASTING What is FORECASTING ? Determining Future Events Based on Historical Facts and Data Some Thoughts on Forecasts Forecasts Tend to Be Wrong! Forecasts Can Be Biased! (Marketing, Sales, etc.). Forecasts Tend to Be Better for Near Future So, Why Forecast? Better to Have Educated Guess About Future Than to Not Forecast At All! What is FORECASTING ? Process of predicting a future event based on historical data Educated guessing Sales will be $200 Million! Underlying basis of all business decisions Production Inventory Personnel Facilities Realities of FORECASTING Forecasts are seldom perfect Most FORECASTING methods assume that there is some underlying stability in the system Both product family and aggregated product forecasts are more accurate than individual product forecasts Why do we need to forecast?

Forecasting Approaches Qualitative •Used when situation is vague & little data exist • New products • New technology •Involves intuition, experience • e.g., forecasting sales on Internet Quantitative •Used when situation is ‘stable’ & historical data exist • Existing products • Current technology •Involves mathematical ...

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