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Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

XiContentsForeword xvPreface xixChapter 1 Fundamental Considerations in Business forecasting Getting Real about Uncertainty (Paul Goodwin) What Demand Planners Can Learn from the Stock Market (Charles K. Re Corr) Toward a More Precise Definition of Forecastability (John Boylan) Forecastability: A New Method (Sean Schubert) Forecast Errors and Their Avoidability (Steve Morlidge) The Perils of Benchmarking (Michael Gilliland) Can We Obtain Valid Benchmarks from Published Surveys of Forecast Accuracy? (Stephan Kolassa) Defining Demand for Demand forecasting (Michael Gilliland) Using forecasting to Steer the Business : Six Principles (Steve Morlidge) The Beauty of forecasting (David Orrell) 76 Chapter 2 Methods of Statistical forecasting Confessions of a Pragmatic Forecaster (Chris Chatfield) New Evidence on the Value of Combining Forecasts (Paul Goodwin) How to Forecast Data Containing Outliers (Eric Stellwagen) Selecting Your Statistical

2.6 Forecasting by Time Compression (Udo Sglavo) 104 2.7 Data Mining for Forecasting: An Introduction (Chip Wells and Tim Rey) 112 2.8 Process and Methods for Data Mining for Forecasting (Chip Wells and Tim Rey) 120 2.9 Worst-Case Scenarios in Forecasting: How Bad Can Things Get? (Roy Batchelor) 126 2.10 Good Patterns, Bad Patterns (Roy ...

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