Transcription of Conservative statistical post-election audits - Berkeley
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Conservative statistical post-election audits - Berkeley
The Annals of Applied Statistics2008, Vol. 2, No. 2, 550 581 Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2008 Conservative statistical post - election AUDITSBYPHILIPB. STA R KUniversity of California, BerkeleyThere are many sources of error in counting votes: the apparent winnermight not be the rightful winner. Hand tallies of the votes in a random sam-ple of precincts can be used to test the hypothesis that a full manual recountwould find a different outcome. This paper develops a Conservative sequen-tial test based on the vote-counting errors found in a hand tally of a simpleor stratified random sample of precincts. The procedure includes a naturalescalation: If the hypothesis that the apparent outcome is incorrect is not re-jected at stages, more precincts are audited. Eventually, either the hypothesisis rejected and the apparent outcome is confirmed or all precincts havebeen audited and the true outcome is known.
that requires post-election audits of randomly selected precincts, “to ensure with at least 99% statistical power that for each federal, gubernatorial or other Statewide election held in the State, a 100% manual recount of the voter-verifiable paper
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