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ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP. 5 February 2018. Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI). Pacific SST Outlook Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks Summary Summary ENSO Alert System Status : La Ni a Advisory La Ni a conditions are present.*. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni a is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.

The tropical Pacific atmosphere is consistent with La Niña. La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22 (~95% chance) and transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2022 (~60% chance during April-June).*

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