Transcription of Epidemic Curves Ahead
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Epidemic Curves Ahead
VOLUME 1, ISSUE 5. Epidemic Curves Ahead An epidemiologist is hardly the first Outbreak pattern of spread person to call in a health emergency. The overall shape of the curve can When someone is having a heart at- CONTRIBUTORS reveal the type of outbreak (common tack, no one cries, Is there an epide- source, point source or propagated). miologist in the house? But epidemi- Author: ologists can offer to count that person A common source outbreak is one in Michelle Torok, MPH and tally him in the Yes column for which people are exposed intermit- heart attacks. And epidemiologists are tently or continuously to a common Reviewers: really good at counting! harmful source. The period of expo- Amy Nelson, PhD, MPH sure may be brief or long.
An epidemic curve can provide a sense of the magnitude of the outbreak as well. For example, there were 73 cases reported in the point source outbreak shown in Figure 3—a fairly large outbreak for certain diseases in a small geo-graphical area. Additional information about the magni-tude of the outbreak within subpopulations can be ob-
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