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GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL …

Journal of Econometrics 31 (1986) 307-327. North-Holland GENERALIZED AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY Tim BOLLERSLEV* University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA Institute of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark Received May 1985, final version received February 1986 A natural generalization of the ARCH ( AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL Heteroskedastic) process introduced in Engle (1982) to allow for past CONDITIONAL variances in the current CONDITIONAL variance equation is proposed. Stationarity conditions and autocorrelation structure for this new class of parametric models are derived. Maximum likelihood estimation and testing are also considered.

GARCH(p, q) process allows lagged conditional variances to enter as well. This corresponds to some sort of adaptive learning mechanism. The GARCH(p,q) regression model is obtained by letting the et'S be innovations in a linear regression, =y, - x;b, (3)

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  Garch, Generalized, Conditional, Autoregressive, Generalized autoregressive conditional

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