Interrupted Time Series Analysis Using STATA* Professor ...

1 Interrupted Time Series Analysis Using STATA* Professor Nicholas Corsaro School of Criminal Justice University of Cincinnati *Lecture Presented at the Justice Research Statistics Association (JRSA) Conference, Denver, CO. 2 Introduction: As a starting framework, let s consider our understanding of research designs. We want to test whether (and to what extent) some social mechanism ( , intervention or policy) influences an outcome of interest. A highly important CJ example, does police officer presence influence crime and disorder in hotspots? The Minneapolis and Kansas City patrol (replication) experimental designs showed us that indeed police officer presence corresponds with a reduction in crime and disorder. The researchers used an experimental design to assess police program impact. Experimental Designs The value of true experiments is that they are the best design available for us to test: 1) Whether there is an empirical association between an independent and dependent variable, 2) Whether time-order is established in that the change in the independent variable(s) occurred before change in the dependent variable(s), 3) Whether or not there was some extraneous variable that influenced the relationship between the independent and

• ARIMA is designed to operate with normally distributed outcome variables (similar to OLS regression) through the use of a Gaussian function • ARIMA assumes that model residuals (random shock components) are NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED. This is a …

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