Market Outlook 2022
WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE 11/15/2021MARKET OUTLOOK 2022 After a 40+ year bull market in bonds, twin deficits in budget and trade, and a multi-decade high in price pressures, it stands to reason that next year will prove a tough slog in the fixed income markets. Yet, the aforementioned “fiscal drag” will result in less issuance of U.S. Treasuries.
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assets.realclear.comDeveloped international stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, rose by more than 11%. Emerging markets stocks faded badly in the second half of the year, losing more than 2%. Chinese regulatory actions, restrictive policy measures, and “zero-Covid” approach were major factors in the poor year for emerging markets.
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assets.realclear.comNovember Existing Home Sales Wednesday, 12/22 Range: 6.280 to 6.670 million units Median: 6.560 million units SAAR Oct = 6.340 million units SAAR Up to an annualized rate of 6.470 million units. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, we look for sales of 497,000 units, and while this would reflect a year-on-year
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assets.realclear.comJan 04, 2022 · Oct = -$67.1 billion Widening to -$81.8 billion. Recall that the October data showed a surge in U.S. exports of goods and only a modest increase in imports of goods into the U.S., with the net result a dramatic drop in the deficit in the goods account. The advance data for November, however, show U.S. exports of goods gave back some of October’s
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assets.realclear.comJan 06, 2022 · Fundamentals inform us about risk, not return. We have made a strategic decision as a firm to not make new purchases of US large cap growth index ... For the full year, commodities outperformed stocks and gold by a wide margin: But it was a tale of weak dollar and strong dollar.
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assets.realclear.com’Twas the night before Christmas, now just hours away, But Santa had problems with his magical sleigh. His reindeer were hungry and not ready to fly, Their feed was lost in the broken chain of supply. Ships by the score were for weeks unable to reach The east port of Savannah or the west in Long Beach.
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assets.realclear.comJan 10, 2022 · December Employment Report: Household Survey Continues To Outperform › Nonfarm employment rose by 199,000 jobs in December; prior estimates for October/November were revised up by 141,000 jobs › Average hourly earnings rose by 0.6 percent while aggregate private sector earnings rose by 0.8 percent › The unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in …
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assets.realclear.comand our forecast allows for some catching up in the February data. That should be enough to break a streak of seven straight monthly declines in unadjusted single family starts, which is a reflection of intensifying supply chain constraints. Even with recent increases in mortgage interest rates, many builders report that demand remains
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