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Omicron US Scenario analysis

Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers December 16, 2021 The University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium Scenario Projections: TheEmergence of Omicron in the USDecember 16, 2021 The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling ConsortiumContributors: Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose , Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel MeyersContact: November 24, 2021, South African scientists announced the rapid spread of a newSARS-CoV-2 variant.

Epidemiological model The appendix describes the model in detail. We use mathematical equations to project the changing numbers of individuals who are susceptible, infected, hospitalized, recovered, and deceased and to track changing levels of immunity in the population. The projections below make the following assumptions:

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Omicron US Scenario analysis

covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu

mi l der O mi cron surge t hat peaks i n January 18, 2022 wi t h cases, hospi t al admi ssi ons, and deat hs reachi ng l evel s t hat are 0. 92 (95% CrI : 0. 41-1. 61), 0. 57 (95% CrI : 0. 28-0. 98), 0. 46 (95% CrI : 0. 32-0. 64) t i mes t he t he January 2021 peak.

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