PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, …

1. PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO analysis , DECISION TREES AND SIMULATIONS. In the last chapter, we examined ways in which we can adjust the value of a risky asset for its risk. Notwithstanding their popularity, all of the approaches share a common theme. The riskiness of an asset is encapsulated in one number a higher discount rate, lower cash flows or a discount to the value and the computation almost always requires us to make assumptions (often unrealistic) about the nature of risk. In this chapter, we consider a different and potentially more informative way of assessing and presenting the risk in an investment. Rather than compute an expected value for an asset that that tries to reflect the different possible outcomes, we could provide information on what the value of the asset will be under each outcome or at least a subset of outcomes. We will begin this section by looking at the simplest version which is an analysis of an asset's value under three scenarios a best case, most likely case and worse case and then extend the discussion to look at SCENARIO analysis more generally.

These factors can range from the state of the economy for an automobile firm considering a new plant, to the response of competitors for a consumer product firm introducing a new product, to the behavior of regulatory authorities for a phone company, considering a new phone service. In general, analysts should focus on the

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  Analysis, Consumer, Behavior, Scenarios, Automobile, Scenario analysis

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