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Project Risk Analysis Model

Project Risk Analysis Model User's Guide PRAM. Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office March 2018. Terms Base Cost Estimate The reviewed or validated Project cost estimate used in quantitative risk Analysis . It represents the expected cost if the Project materializes as planned, including PE, RW, and CN costs. It is unbiased and neutral (neither optimistic nor conservative). Base Variability The ordinary quantity and price variations about the estimated base. It is captured as a modest symmetric range about the estimated value, of the form: base value x% . typically from 5% to 15% depending on level of Project development and complexity of the Project .

This is where to Indicate conditionality between risks, to model basic correlations, dependencies, and duration links. See later section for more details. The model-engine uses the inputs from these sheets. Review the inputs before running. Base Estimate Pre Risk-Response Post Risk-Response Base Risk C Risk B Risk Form Pre Response Post Response

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