Project Risk Analysis Model

Project Risk Analysis Model User's Guide PRAM. Strategic Analysis and Estimating Office March 2018. Terms Base Cost Estimate The reviewed or validated Project cost estimate used in quantitative risk Analysis . It represents the expected cost if the Project materializes as planned, including PE, RW, and CN costs. It is unbiased and neutral (neither optimistic nor conservative). Base Variability The ordinary quantity and price variations about the estimated base. It is captured as a modest symmetric range about the estimated value, of the form: base value x% . typically from 5% to 15% depending on level of Project development and complexity of the Project . Estimate A quantitative assessment of the likely amount or outcome. Refers to Project costs, and durations typically preceded by a modifier ( preliminary, conceptual, order-of- magnitude, etc.). An indication of accuracy ( x percent). An estimate has two components: the base cost estimate component and the risk/uncertainty component.

The risk register includes detailed information about the risk and is a “living” document that evolves as the project evolves. Risk Response The process of developing response actions to identified risk events that enhance opportunities and reduce threats to project objectives.

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  Analysis, Model, Project, Risks, Opportunities, Registers, Risk register, Project risk analysis model

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