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Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International ...

Scenarios for the Future of Technologyand International DevelopmentThis report was produced by The Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business 2010 ContentsLetter from Judith Rodin ..4 Letter from Peter Schwartz ..6 Introduction ..8 WHY Scenarios ? ..9 WHY Technology ? ..10 THE FOCAL QUESTION ..11 ENGAGING YOUR IMAGINATION ..11 The Scenario Framework ..13 CHOOSING THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES ..14 GLOBAL POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ALIGNMENT ..15 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ..15 THE SCENARIO NARRATIVES ..17 Lock Step ..18 Clever Together ..26 Hack Attack ..34 Smart Scramble ..42 Concluding Thoughts ..49 Appendix ..51 The Rockefeller Foundation supports work that expands opportunity and strengthens resilience to social, economic, health, and environmental challenges affirming its pioneering philanthropic mission, since 1913, to promote the well-being of humanity. We take a synergistic, strategic approach that places a high value on innovative processes and encourages new ways of seeking ideas, to break down silos and encourage interdisciplinary thinking.

Philanthropy has a unique and critical role to play in this process. By focusing its patience, capital, and attention on the links between technology and international development, philanthropy will change not just lives but the very context in which the field of philanthropy operates. This report represents an initial step in that direction.

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