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Statistical Decision Theory: Concepts, Methods and ...

Statistical Decision Theory: Concepts, Methods and Applications (Special topics in Probabilistic Graphical Models) FIRST COMPLETE DRAFT November 30, 2003 Supervisor: Professor J. Rosenthal STA4000Y Anjali Mazumder 950116380 Part I: Decision Theory Concepts and Methods 1 Part I: Decision THEORY - Concepts and Methods Decision theory as the name would imply is concerned with the process of making decisions. The extension to Statistical Decision theory includes Decision making in the presence of Statistical knowledge which provides some information where there is uncertainty. The elements of Decision theory are quite logical and even perhaps intuitive. The classical approach to Decision theory facilitates the use of sample information in making inferences about the unknown quantities. Other relevant information includes that of the possible consequences which is quantified by loss and the prior information which arises from Statistical investigation.

Models of strategic rationality (small-group behavior) or competitive rationality (market behavior) branch into areas of game theory and asset pricing theory, respectively. Thus for the purposes of this report, these latter models have been neglected as the interest of study is statistical decision theory based on individual rationality.

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