Transcription of Taylor Approximation and the Delta Method
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Taylor Approximation and the Delta MethodAlex Papanicolaou April 28, 20091 Taylor Motivating Example: Estimating the oddsSuppose we observeX1,..,Xnindependent Bernoulli(p) random variables. Typically, we areinterested inpbut there is also interest in the parameterp1 p, which is known as theodds. Forexample, if the outcomes of a medical treatment occur withp= 2/3, then the odds of getting betteris 2 : 1. Furthermore, if there is another treatment with success probabilityr, we might also beinterested in theodds ratiop1 p/r1 r, which gives the relative odds of one treatment over we wished to estimatep, we would typically estimate this quantity with the observed successprobability p= iXi/n. To estimate the odds, it then seems perfectly natural to use p1 pas anestimate forp1 p.
4 Multivariate Delta Method We have actually already seen the multivariate precursor to the multivariate extension to the Delta Method. We use an example to illustrate the usage. 4.1 Moments of a Ratio Estimator Suppose Xand Y are random variables with nonsero means X and Y, respectively. The para-metric function to be estimated is g( X; Y) = X ...
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