The Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United ...

659 Vol. 5, No. 5, September October 1999 Emerging Infectious DiseasesResearchInfluenza pandemics have occurred forcenturies, three times (1918, 1957, and 1968) inthe 20th century alone. Another Pandemic ishighly likely, if not inevitable (1). In the 1918influenza Pandemic , more than 20 million peopledied (2). Improvements in medical care andtechnology since the last Pandemic may reducethe Impact of the next. When planning for thenext Pandemic , however, decision makers needto examine the following questions: Would itmake Economic sense to vaccinate the entire if 15% were to become clinically ill?What if 25% were to become ill? To answer suchquestions, we conducted Economic analyses ofpotential intervention many studies have examined orreviewed the economics of Influenza vaccination(3-10), only one study (11), published in 1976,examined the economics of a vaccine-basedintervention aimed at reducing the Impact of aninfluenza epidemic in the United States.

Vol. 5, No. 5, SeptemberŒOctober 1999 Emerging Infectious Diseases661 Research Gross Attack Rates In the model, we used gross attack rates (percentage of clinical influenza illness cases per

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