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Vector Autoregression and Vector Error-Correction Models

CHAPTER 5 Vector Autoregression and Vector Error-Correction Models Vector Autoregression (VAR) was introduced by Sims (1980) as a technique that could be used by macroeconomists to characterize the joint dynamic behavior of a collection of varia-bles without requiring strong restrictions of the kind needed to identify underlying structural parameters. It has become a prevalent method of time-series modeling. Although estimating the equations of a VAR does not require strong identification as-sumptions, some of the most useful applications of the estimates, such as calculating impulse-response functions (IRFs) or variance decompositions do require identifying restrictions.

Granger causality analysis. 5.1.1 Forecasting with a VAR The structure of equations is designed to model how the values of the variables in (5.1) period . t. are related to past values. This makes the VAR a natural for the task of forecasting the future paths of . x . and . y.

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  Granger causality, Granger, Causality

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