1 Bayes’ theorem
Bayes’ theorem relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of stochastic events A and B: P(A|B) = P(B|A)P(A) P(B). Each term in Bayes’ theorem has a conventional name: • P(A) is the prior probability or marginal probability of A. It is ”prior” in the sense that it does not take into account any information about B.
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