IDENTIFICATION OF EMERGING ISSUES FOR …

1 Chapter 5. | IDENTIFICATION of EMERGING ISSUES for Sustainable Development | 77. 5. CHAPTER. IDENTIFICATION OF. EMERGING ISSUES . FOR SUSTAINABLE. DEVELOPMENT. Introduction The Global Sustainable Development Report (GSDR) is a United Nations publication aiming to strengthen the science-policy interface at the High Level Political Forum (HLPF). Science-policy interfaces refer to the many ways in which scientists, policy-makers and other stakeholders link up to communicate, exchange ideas and jointly develop knowledge to enrich policy and decision making processes and The 2015 GSDR underlined the importance of utilizing these linkages to identify EMERGING ISSUES across the whole spectrum of sustainable development, including its social and economic While many approaches exist for IDENTIFICATION of EMERGING ISSUES , common features include the involvement of experts and formalized processes drawing on scientific evidence, assessments, and projections. The science-policy interface involves the exchange of information and knowledge leading to learning and, ultimately, changes to decision-making and behaviour.

2 It can provide a variety of functions at different stages of the policy and decision-making process. For instance, scientific advice can steer public attention to ISSUES that threaten human well-being and that require policy intervention. Many environmental and health problems ( climate change, malaria, HIV/AIDS) were brought to the forefront of political attention through a process of awareness creation relying on scientific expertise. Alternatively, in the absence of public concern and before ISSUES enter the policy cycle, scientific expertise can be used to bring them to the attention of policy-makers, provide problem definition and assess the potential impact of different policy options. In general, it could be said that it is crucial to inform policy and decision makers about new and future opportunities as well as threats and have them prepare for slow changes and sudden shocks. 78 | Global Sustainable Development Report 2016. Policymakers are exposed to a broad range of analyses, rankings, and advice concerning EMERGING ISSUES , prepared from a multitude of perspectives.

3 However, the available Box 5-1: EMERGING issue and newness material varies widely in terms of scales geographical and temporal and in the thematic coverage of ISSUES . As such, Recognition as EMERGING ' is based on newness', but it is not readily accessible for policy-makers in the HLPF. not necessarily ISSUES that are unheard of or that There is thus a need to systematize the existing material, come as a surprise. Newness could be the result of: informed by a sustainable development perspective. The 1. new scientific knowledge, which could be in form of Secretary-General's 2016 report on follow-up and review new data, evidence, theory or model;. at the global level highlights that a critical mandate for the 2. new technological development;. HLPF is to address new and EMERGING 3. new scales or accelerated rates of impact;. Following the initial consideration of EMERGING ISSUES in the 4. a heightened level of awareness; and 2014 and 2015 Reports, it was felt that one problem was 5.

4 New ways of responding to a known the relative absence of frameworks for: first, systematically identifying a range of ISSUES for possible consideration by policymakers; and second, categorizing and presenting them. The aim of Chapter 5 is to give an overview of existing approaches to IDENTIFICATION of EMERGING ISSUES Identifying EMERGING ISSUES for sustainable development, as well as to provide and demonstrate a possible approach to identify EMERGING There are numerous ways in which the idea of EMERGING ISSUES for future Global Sustainable Development Reports. ISSUES ' pertinent to policy makers and the sustainable The first part of the chapter aims to contribute to the development agenda could be conceptualized (See Box policy discussion by: identifying what an EMERGING issue 5-1). The broad scope of sustainable development suggests is, outlining criteria and introducing scanning as major that virtually any social, economic or environmental approach for finding EMERGING ISSUES ; and providing a process or challenge amenable to scientific understanding possible framework for categorizing EMERGING ISSUES .

5 It may potentially be relevant. Emergence, meanwhile, also presents a sample of EMERGING ISSUES from a variety could signify the novelty or intensification of some of of sources. These sources were used to provide a broad those ISSUES , fresh understanding of their causes or overview of the EMERGING ISSUES that can be considered consequences, the development of new management by policy makers. The second part of the chapter focuses options, or the IDENTIFICATION of ISSUES that have gone on the expert assessment of EMERGING ISSUES which was previously unrecognized. The inherently subjective process conducted as an exercise in order to explore and apply a of identifying EMERGING ISSUES can, however, be guided new approach to the IDENTIFICATION of EMERGING ISSUES for by criteria, selected with a view to the particular field of sustainable development. interest, the global environment. Table 5-1. Criteria for identifying EMERGING ISSUES Criteria Explanation Risk assessment Probability of occurrence Likelihood of occurrence Impact/extent of potential damage Impact on society, economy, environment General/cross-cutting Persistence Short to long-term effect, long decay in environment Irreversibility Damage/harm cannot be undone Latency/delayed response Gap between causal event and damage/harm Ubiquity Geographic (local to global), across multiple dimensions of sustainable development Novelty New to policymakers, departs from prevailing scientific understanding Potential for mobilization Degree of political relevance Plausibility Clear cause-effect links, authoritative sources, evidence-based Resolvability Perceived as conducive to human intervention, within existing paradigms of action Priority Importance in terms of social and cultural norms, impact on already vulnerable/marginalized Source: Adapted from WBGU (1998)5 ; Amanitidou et al (2012)6.

6 Chapter 5. | IDENTIFICATION of EMERGING ISSUES for Sustainable Development | 79. For instance, as illustrated in table 5-1, a common starting human perception, especially expert opinion, plays a key point is an assessment of probability and impact, with role in many approaches to identifying EMERGING ISSUES . additional criteria catering for more fine-grained analysis. More broadly, the framing of ISSUES guided by shared Thus an assessment of potential persistence of an effect assumptions and worldviews influences which ISSUES are could be of importance in considering an EMERGING issue in labelled as the environmental domain. It must also be recognized that how and by whom an issue is perceived as EMERGING Even a guided scanning process is likely to generate a large will make a difference, not least to effective policy action. number of ISSUES . To identify ISSUES that are appropriate Scientific findings and support are necessary, but whether for policymakers at the global level, some form of filter an issue comes to the fore will also depend on political can help to screen out ISSUES of primarily local or national processes and social norms.

7 Significance. Adapting the global filter proposed by the WGBU12 for environmental ISSUES , the following questions The process of identifying EMERGING ISSUES can proceed could be useful in filtering EMERGING ISSUES for consideration in a number of ways, but a common starting point is by policymakers at the international level in the HLPF: scanning for ISSUES across a range of sources, informed by the purpose of the exercise. Horizon scanning is 1. Does the issue in question relate closely to the defined as the systematic examination of potential Sustainable Development Goals? (future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future 2. Is the issue a potential threat or opportunity of global, developments including those at the margins of current or at least international relevance? thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected ISSUES , as well as persistent problems, 3. Does management of the risk or harnessing of the trends and weak signals.

8 7 Weak signals are the first sign opportunity depend on international action and of EMERGING ISSUES and the indicators of possible cooperation? More broadly, scanning serves a policy development 4. Is the issue expected to persist (non-transient) and/or function by informing scenario and other future-directed does it have a clear increasing trend? exercises, and by emphasizing the creation of networks and knowledge flows between Figure 5-1 Figure 5-2 sets out in schematic terms the process of situates the scanning in a broader context of future- scanning for ISSUES , with the application of a filter to sift oriented tools for policymaking. for ISSUES of potential interest to policymakers, in this case the HLPF. Exploratory scanning focuses on compiling potential EMERGING ISSUES from a wide variety of data from different Frameworks for EMERGING ISSUES sources, while an issue -centered approach concentrates Following the exploratory scanning of ISSUES , the next on identifying core documents that describe substantial step usually involves clustering or categorizing the ISSUES parts of potential ISSUES .

9 So as to avoid a one-dimensional in manner that facilitates analysis and insight13, 14. Various view on EMERGING ISSUES , it is advisable to consult as wide frameworks can be used what works will depend on as possible a variety of information sources, taking into the context and overall goal of the research. Ideally, the account the scope and purpose of the exercise. The role of framework should be reasonably flexible. In order to Figure 5-1: Simplified phases of a foresight process Phase Early detection (phase 1) Developing policy options (phase 2). Description Identi cation and monitoring of ISSUES , Assessing policy challenges, trends, developments, and changes envisioning desired futures, and policy action Decision- making Information Insights chain Knowledge Action Policy tool Horizon scans Scenarios Source: adapted from Habegger (2009).10. 80 | Global Sustainable Development Report 2016. Figure 5-2: Schematic representation of a process for identifying EMERGING ISSUES in the HLPF.

10 HLPF lter . EMERGING Scanning Detection ISSUES Source: Authors' elaboration. understand which framework is most suitable for the claim that it is inherently superior; rather, that it proved sustainable development context, EMERGING ISSUES from a more capable of being applied with reasonable ease and selection of assessments and reports see table 2 below consistency to the rather broad set of ISSUES in question. were categorized in accordance with three frameworks: Additionally, categories used in the STEEP framework were familiar to different interest groups. 1. STEEP framework: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political; Table 5-2 illustrates the categorization of EMERGING ISSUES 2. Kates framework: areas and ISSUES typically covered identified in a four reports and assessments, prepared from in definitions of sustainable development in the different perspective and for different audiences. In this literature;15 sample, social and political categories had the lowest share of ISSUES ; however, the distribution of ISSUES is sensitive to 3.