4 System thinking in agriculture: an overview - BOKU

1 1 4 System thinking in agriculture : an overview systemmostfinal2 Schiere1, R. Groenland2, A. Vlug3 and H. Van Keulen4 Chapter 4 in: System thinking in agriculture an overview . Chapter 4 in Emerging Challenges for farming systems - lessons from Australian and Dutch agriculture ; edited by Ken Rickert. Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. 4776, Kingston Act 2604. A sufficiently vast and considerable intellect, knowing the complete laws of microscopic physics and the physical state of the universe at any moment, could calculate the state of the universe at all subsequent times; all prior ones, too, if the laws are reversible. (Laplace, Essai philosophique sur les probabilit s, 1814) Step by step, there lies waiting, quite perfect, what is needed for that step (Indian wisdom, quoted by Auerbach, 1999); A reference to Aristotle and Leibniz has long ceased to be required in serious books.

2 But [..] several basic ideas of fractals might be viewed as mathematical and scientific implementations of loose but potent notions that date back to Aristotle and Leibniz, permeate our culture, and affect even those who think they are not subject to philosophical influences. (Mandelbrot, 2000). The road emerges as we are walking (a line from a Spanish poem by Antonio Machado) Maturity is the ability to hold on to different world views, preferably conflicting, at the same time. (C. West Churchman quoted by Richard Bawden) Newton separated light into parts [different colours] while Goethe was interested to see what happened when parts [different colours] were joined together (Brian Goodwin, pers. comm., 2000). Abstract Agricultural developments in the 20th century are characterised by impressive yield increases. In spite of its successes, however, agriculture s image has also become marred by issues such as unequal distribution of food and income, large-scale social change and concerns about pollution and/or exhaustion of natural resources.

3 Can agriculture continue to feed the world, and if so, in which way? All these issues relate to similar developments and concerns in other sectors of society and in our opinion System thinking provides concepts and tools for the analysis and design of such developments. System thinking is considered here as an informal kind of System theory that can also use emerging and as yet immature concepts to explore the behaviour of the world in which we live. System thinking may take many different forms and can help to explore questions regarding the future of farming, to the extent that agricultural systems represent a special case of systems in general. Much can also be learned by combining insights from agriculture with those from other disciplines, such as mathematics, physics and psychology. Such combinations should even allow for the bridging of traditional but man-made divisions.

4 Therefore, this chapter outlines different forms of System thinking . It discusses aspects of reductionist and holistic approaches, static and dynamic thought, as well as the so-called control versus 1 Hans Schiere, La Ventana ASA&D, Bovenweg 30, 6721 HX Bennekom, the Netherlands; 2 Rob Groenland, Meteo Consult bv, Agro Business Park 99/101 6708 PV Wageningen, the Netherlands; 3 Albert Vlug , Erasmus University, Medical Informatics, Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, the Netherlands; 4 Herman Van Keulen ,Plant Research International, Box 16, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands: 2 participation paradigm. We think that these extremes span reality , and we therefore opt for a combination of approaches rather than for one or the other. This is the central issue of this chapter, the need to integrate insights from different disciplines, from thinking focussed on matter to thinking focussed on mind, from arts to sciences.

5 By doing so, it aims to show that concepts from psychology, ecology and physics, such as perception, coping strategies, predator-prey relations and thermodynamic theory, can clarify discussions about agricultural development. It also aims to show that man is part of nature, that he is a participant that has to make choices rather than a neutral observer who can control nature for a single-minded anthropocentric goal. The last part of this chapter is therefore dedicated to the discussion of generalised forms of System behaviour and their application in daily life, based on thermodynamic theory. Introduction Agricultural development of the past century tends to be characterised by impressive production increases through increased use of land, fossil resources, labour, and technological innovations or farmers ingenuity (Chapters 1 and 2).

6 The achievements, however, are marred by negative trade-offs that seem to be intimately linked to so-called progress. Examples of emerging concerns in this respect are unequal distribution of food and income at local, regional and global levels, declining bio-diversity, dwindling water reserves, and side-effects from using biotechnology etc. Some authors maintain a rosy or cornucopian view of the options for agriculture , others are more conservationist, while an intermediate group takes a balanced but necessarily ambiguous view. The divergence of opinion is confusing in itself, but matters are made even more complex due to the fact that changes in agriculture cannot be understood in isolation, they are inextricably linked to other developments in society. System theory provides concepts and tools to better understand complex developments in agriculture and society, because farming systems are just one type of System in general.

7 The terms System theory and System thinking both refer to an activity that is as old as mankind and that knows many traditions. We mostly use the term thinking because it permits the use of valuable ideas that are not (yet) formalised. Understanding the different traditions in System thinking can clarify the origin of present practices and policies in agriculture ; it can even have therapeutic value in showing the roots of hang-ups in modern thought, and it can help to establish choices for the future. This chapter, therefore, outlines a few major traditions in western System thinking and ventures into their significance for the 21st century. In doing so we address three major issues: Uncertainty and changing conditions. Three key concepts in this respect are context, relations and non-linearity. Context is a general term for the management environment outlined in Chapter 1.

8 It implies that what is good or true in one place may be bad or untrue elsewhere. For example, fossil fuels or agro-chemicals may be useful in one place but counterproductive in other systems. The existence of relations implies that an action in one place may trigger unexpected effects elsewhere. For example, the introduction of pesticides can result in trade-offs that cause consumers to switch to other products. Non-linearity refers to the phenomenon that trends cannot be extrapolated linearly, and that too little as well as too much of any given intervention or activity may not be good (Odum, 1975). The link between matter and mind. Bridging traditional divides, such as exist between thinking in terms of matter and mind, is in our view essential for a future that is worth living. Much thinking about agriculture focuses on biophysical entities (matter) that can be quantified, thus leaving qualitative, intangible and psychological (mind) effects exclusively to considerations of society and politics.

9 At the same time, many socially oriented disciplines have difficulty in understanding and/or accepting the importance of physical laws. In this chapter we continue to use the distinction between matter and mind to make sure that both aspects are considered; not to imply that they are separable in some strict sense. 3 Enabling discussion. Concepts pertaining to System behaviour provide a basis for discussing the future of agriculture , exploring uncertainty and variation in systems, linking cornucopian and conservationist thought, and for reassessing basic notions in our thinking . This chapter first reviews ancient traditions in System thinking . It subsequently distinguishes modern schools of System thought, here categorised as hard-, soft- and complex System thinking , respectively HSM, SSM and CSM. (the M in this acronym stands for methodology ).

10 It also makes a distinction between approaches, thinking , and methodology, because thinking about approaches necessarily precedes choice of method. Brief reference is made to farming systems research across the globe. We discuss the relation between complexity, inevitable trade-offs and the strange mixture of uncertainty and repetition of form. Finally, a discussion of System dynamics contrasts rather static thinking about farming systems with evolutionary approaches. It thus connects major themes of modern and ancient System thinking by relating several forms of System behaviour, like co-evolution, lock-in and predator-prey relations to aspects of agricultural development. Whilst a few of these behaviours are known in one way or another, the section on ancient System thinking shows that new concepts tend to be initially accepted for their instrumental value, and only later lead to a paradigmatic shift in thinking if at all.