반도체 2017 반도체수급및기술트랜드전망

1 2017 NH , Analyst teltelteltel02) 768-7585 12 ('00 ~ '11, ) ---- ('00 ~'02) ('00 ~'02) ('00 ~'02) ('00 ~'02) . / : CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) ---- ('02 ~'03) ('02 ~'03) ('02 ~'03) ('02 ~'03) . / / / ---- ('03 ~'08) ('03 ~'08) ('03 ~'08) ('03 ~'08) . , , M&A. (Joint Development Project)---- ('08 ~'11) ('08 ~'11) ('08 ~'11) ('08 ~'11) . / . Promotion ( 12 ~ 13): ( 13 3 ) ( 13 ~ 14): ( 13 1 , 14 1 )NH ( 14 ~ ): ( 14 1 , 14 1 ) ( 15 1 , ` 15 1 , 15 1 , 16 1 ) : Ceria CMP / ( : 100475457 ( )) : ( ), Analyst : 3 Key ChartsExecutive Summary : Convergence : Convergence DivergenceDivergence 3: 3: 1.

2 DRAM1. DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4X)(DDR4/LPDDR4X) 2. 3d nand 2. 3d nand 20172017 (DRAM/ nand ) (DRAM/ nand ) ,0004,0009,00014,00019,00024,0001Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15E2Q15F3Q15F4Q15F1Q16E2Q16F3Q16F4Q16F 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10% DRAM (1Gb eq., Mpcs)4 2017 : Convergence Divergence 2017 Convergence Divergence - VR, - : , NH Convergence Divergence 5 2017 : Convergence Divergence Divergence - VR 4K 8K - : Gartner, NH - Divergence VR : Gartner, NH 6 2017 : Convergence Divergence VR 2015 3 2020 56 - VR 2015 2017 22 - VR 80% 2020 52% , PC : Gartner, NH VR Shipment VR (Phone, , PC).

3 Gartner, NH VR ( )84%84%82%80%59%55%53%52%6%5%6%7%28%30%3 1%32%10%11%12%13%12%15%16%16%0%10%20%30% 40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201320142015201620 17201820192020 PhoneConsolePC 7 2017 : , , - 2017 16 15 17 5% - 20% : Gartner, NH : 16 15 17 (YoY ) DRAM : CAGR 29% : Gartner, NH 1803074827009901,2261,4011,5031,57902004 006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,00020 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017( )'14 ~18 CAGR 9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(GB/Sys)'14 ~18 CAGR 29%8 DRAM . - - DRAM 3 - SK DRAM : NH / - - - 9 History : PC DRAM nand (SD Card) 3d nand (SSD)2000 nand .

4 2016 SSD - 1990 PC .DRAM 1995 . DRAM 1998 - 2000 iPOD SD Card nand . 2002 nand SD Card . 2000 DRAM nand DRAM :Gartner, NH 10 2016 2000 ( nand ) 2016 SSD 3d nand . 2000 DRAM - 2016 SSD 3d nand . 2016 SSD PC 3d nand . 2000 DRAM nand - SSD (2000 ) SD Card 2000 2016 . DRAM 2000 nand DRAM DRAM 2016 :Gartner, NH NAND300 NAND300 HDD300 HDD300 += nand + HDD 600 nand CAPA: 1200K CAPA nand + HDD 600 nand CAPA: 1200K CAPA 11 2017 : , + PC ( ) + (SSD/UFS)- DRAM ,LPDDR4 LPDDR4X- DDR4 2133 2400 Mhz, PC DRAM 3d nand SSD.

5 SSD UFS DRAM LPDDR4X PC/Server PC/Server DDR4 2133 2400 MHzPC DRAM 3d nand /SSD SSD UFS 2017 : NH 12 2017 : DRAM LPDDR4 LPDDR4X DRAM LPDDR4 LPDDR4X - LPDDR4X LPDDR4 18% - LPDDR4, LPDDR4X 6 Gbps LPDDR5 : , NH DRAM : LPDDR4 LPDR4X DRAM : , NH 13 PC : Skylake(2015) Kaby Lake(2016)PC Kaby Lake 16 3Q DDR4 2400 - Intel Kaby Lake PC Skylake DDR4 2133 2400 - Kaby Lake 17 Cannon Lake 10nm - DDR4 Intel Roadmap Kaby Lake: 14nm (Skylake ) : DRAMeXchange, NH : DRAMeXchange, NH 14 Server : Haswell Broadwel(2016) Skylake(2017) Haswell Broadwell - Haswell DDR4 2133 1866 Broadwell DDR4 2400 - DDR4 Intel Server RoadmapBroadwel vs.

6 Skylake : DRAMeXchange, NH : DRAMeXchange, NH 15 2017 : 3d nand SSDSSD PC , Enterprise - SSD HDD 14 1/10 - 3d nand SSD : IEEE, Flash Memory Summit, NH SSD SSD : Gartner, NH 16 2017 : 3d nand SSD2017 SSD HDD - SSD 3d nand 30% SSD - 2018 3d nand SSD HDD : , NH nand 17 SSD : , NH 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017020406080100120140 (SSD/HDD)SSD $/GBHDD $/GB17 2017 : 3d nand SSD2017 SSD HDD - SSD 3d nand 30% SSD - 2018 3d nand SSD HDD : , NH SSD : , NH 18 2017 : 3d nand SSD L1, L2, L3, DRAM, nand , HDD - L1, L2, L3 CPU DRAM - CPU SSD vs HDD : NH 19 2017 : SSD UFS(Universal Flash Solution) nand UFS(Universial Flash Solution) - UFS eMMC SSD nand .

7 SD 6 ( ) . SSD 2 - 256GB Evo microSD UHS 3 (U3) UFS 530MB/s 170MB/s - 4K 40,000 IOPS, 35,000 IOPS microSD : , NH UFS SSDUFS = eMMC + SSD : , NH 20 2017 : SSD UFS(Universal Flash Solution) nand UFS(Universial Flash Solution) - UFS eMMC SSD nand . SD 6 ( ) . SSD 2 - 256GB Evo microSD UHS 3 (U3) UFS 530MB/s 170MB/s - 4K 40,000 IOPS, 35,000 IOPS microSD : , NH UFS UFS vs. eMMC : , NH 21 2017 : SSD UFS(Universal Flash Solution)UFS eMMC(Parallel Interface) Serial Interface - eMMC Parallel Interface - UFS - Read( ) , Write( ) : , NH UFS : Serial InterfaceeMMC : Parallel Interface : , NH 22 2017 : SSD UFS(Universal Flash Solution)UFS 3d nand - UFS 2D nand 3d nand - 256GB UFS 3d nand 1TB : , NH UFS UFS : , NH 23 : DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4x) + 3d nand SSD + DRAM + 3d nand SSD + - + DDR4 + PoP - SSD UFS 3d nand .

8 - DDR4 DDR4 . SSD Test DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4X)DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4X) + DDR4 + PoP SSD UFS SSD UFS 3d nand SSD DDR4 DDR4 SSD Test 2017 Key Factors : NH Key Factor24 1. DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4x) DDR4 (2133 2400) . DDR3 - DDR4 2133 2400 . 2466, 3200 - DDR3 PC TV, : , NH DDR4 DDR3 : DRAMeXchange, NH 25 1. DRAM (DDR4/LPDDR4x) PoP DRAM - DRAM PoP AP ,- eMCP( DRAM + nand ) AP - LPDDR4 :Micron, NH LPDDR4X LPDDR4 18% : MIcron, NH 26 2.

9 SSD UFS 3d nand SSD SSD CAGR(2011 ~ 2017) 74% 2017 SSD 236GB - SSD HDD - UFS SSD . UFS 2017 S8 : NH SSD : CAGR 74% SSD : NH 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070, 00080,0002011201220132014201520162017 OthersEnterprise StorageEnterprise ServerDesktopNotebook(Mpcs, GB eq.)CAGR 74%Average Capacity (GB)114119125167200236110050100150200250 2011201220132014201520162017($)27 2. SSD UFS 3d nand SSD Western Digital 2017 3d nand 50% - HDD Western Digital Flash Memory Summit 2017 3d nand 2017 50% - 3d nand 3d nand TLC 2D nand MLC - Google QLC( Quadruple Level Cell) 3d nand SSD :SK , NH 3d nand vs. 2D nand 2017 3d nand 50% : Western Digital, NH 28 Stack 64 3D NAND3D NANDS tack 48 (Cell on Peri) 3d nand : NH 3d nand : 48 64 + (Cell on Peri) + 1 6 - 1: 48 64 - 2: (Cell on Peri)- 3: (1 6 ) 2.

10 SSD UFS 3d nand SSD 1 6 3D NAND29 1: 3d nand Stack (48 64 ) - 3d nand 2016 64 - 64 . 2017 80 96 Cell on Peri 2. SSD UFS 3d nand : , NH 2016 48 64 3d nand : , NH # of 3d nand Stacks2432486480961121280204060801001201 40201320142015201620172018201920203D NAND30 3d nand : , NH 2. SSD UFS 3d nand Stack Stack 48 64 Nitride Nitride Nitride WET Dry Etch StaircaseStaircaseStack KrF 3d nand : 48 64 1: 3d nand Stack (48 64 ) - 3d nand 64 - Nitride Wet Etching Dry Etching 3D NAND31 3d nand : , NH 2.