2018년 국내외 경제전망 - lgeri.com

1 1. 2. 3. 2018. 5. 3 2018 . 3% .. , .. 2016 3% .. , , .. 1 2 1% . 2% .. 10 20 . 1% . , 1,060 . 2/* ( )2018 ( ) 1.. 2010.

2 , .. , . , . , , , .. , .. , . , 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (%) 1 : IMF, OECD , IMF ( , %) 012342011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2 : (OECD) : OECD 197177 4967( : %) 3 : : Bloomberg32018 ( ) /* ( ) .. , , , 1 .. 1 20%.

3 3% 1969 . 20 . 80100120140160201620172018(2 010=100) 4 : Bloomberg0246810121420002004200820122016 (%) 5 : THOMSON REUTERS EIKON4/* ( )2018 ( ) . 3~4 20 .. GDP IT , .. 2016 3% . , . 3% .. 2% .. 03691990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020(%) 6 : 10 : Bloomberg (%) 7201620172018 (PPP) / ( ) / ( ) / ( ) ( / )415367 : 52018 ( ) /* ( ).

4 , . , .. Make in India 7% . 1 2 . - - . 600 .. 11 .. 5,000 . , , , . - .. (%) 8 : GDP : Federal Reserver Economic Data6/* ( )2018 ( ) .. , , 1~2%.

5 2.. 3 3% . 2000 84% .. 0204060801002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017(%) 9 : 72018 ( ) /* ( ) .. 4 IT .. , . , .. 3 .. 1%p .. 46% -6-303691220 1120 1320 1520 17 ( , %) 10 : Thomson Reuters Eikon (%) 1120172018 (GDP) ( ) ( ) ( ) (%) (%) ( )785273399672 (%) (%) ( )32202120 / ( )1,1311,0691,0521,060 / ( )1,2771,3031,3151,309 / ( )1,008988992990 / ( )168169167168 (%, ) (%, ) : (AA- ) 3 8/* ( )2018 ( ).

6 , . 10 .. 3% 4 1 2 1% .. / ..-1012345201620172018( , %) 12 : (%) 1720 18 13 : , LG 92018 ( ) /* ( ) , 2015 .. 2012 3 . 3 . 2000 38 (2005~2015 ) ( ) 2016 50 60 . GDP 2000 ( ) 81% . GDP 2009 2000 .. 30%.

7 , , DTI, DSR . 2% .. GTX, , SOC . SOC 20% . 3 .. 11 . , 2~3 . 7074788220002004200820122016 2018(%) 00 : 15 : = / GDP : , LG ( ) ( )( )(2 ) 14 : , . (%p )-1 0-50510199520002005201020152020 (%p) 16 : HP .10/* ( )2018 ( ) 3.. 3~4 4.

8 , , , , 25 . , .. 10 3% . 20 . 31 1 18 . 30 . 1 .. 2 15~64 1 4 7 .. 2000 . 20~50 . 2020 15~64 24 .. 7 . -4 0-2 0 0 202016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 20~50 ( , ) 17 : ( ) 18 : 112018 ( ) /* ( ).

9 ~ . 2000 .. 20 . 19 970 5 100 .. 2~3 . 3~40 . 10 4 . 50 . 16% . , .. , . 10 20 ..-5-1005101520201620172018( , ) 19 : ( )1a ( ) ( )481216 1 2 8 4048 ( ) 20 : 2017 : ( , )12/* ( )2018 ( ).

10 (AA-, 3 ) 2017 2018 .. , .. (+ ) .. 1,131 1,060 .. 21 ~ ~ 21 25 ( ) 173-494( )197-787( )-24293 -139590 (%) (%) (%p) : 3 . : 0204060801001,0 501,1 001,1 501,2 001,2 50 CDS ( ) / ( )201720162018( / )(b p) 22 : Bloomberg, 3.