A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas

1 A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol September 5, 2018 Prepared for Department of Agriculture Office of Energy and Environmental Policy 1400 Independence Avenue, SW Washington, DC 20250 Prepared by ICF 1725 I (Eye) Street Washington, DC 20006 A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol ICF prepared this final project report under usda Contract No. AG-3142-D-17-0161 in support of the project: Technical Support Communicating Results of Retrospective and Current Examination of the Lifecycle GHG Emissions of Corn-Based Ethanol report .

2 This final project report is presented in the form in which ICF provided it to usda . Any views presented are those of the authors and are not necessarily the views of or endorsed by usda . For More Information Jan Lewandrowski, usda Project Manager Bill Hohenstein, Director, usda Energy and Environmental Policy Suggested Citation J. Rosenfeld, J. Lewandrowski, T. Hendrickson, K. Jaglo, K. Moffroid, and D. Pape, 2018. A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol. report prepared by ICF under usda Contract No.

3 AG-3142-D-17-0161. September 5, 2018. Persons with Disabilities Individuals who are deaf, hard of hearing, or have speech disabilities and you wish to file either an EEO or program complaint please contact usda through the Federal Relay Service at (800) 877 8339 or (800) 845 6136 (in Spanish). Persons with disabilities, who wish to file a program complaint, please see information above on how to contact us by mail directly or by email. If you require alternate means of communication for program information ( , Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.)

4 Please contact usda s TARGET Center at (202) 720 2600 (voice and TDD). blankpageA Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol CONTENTS | i CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .. 1 General Approach 4 Organization of the report 7 ASSESSING CURRENT LIFECYCLE GHG EMISSIONS FOR CORN ETHANOL .. 8 Domestic Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O 8 Literature Review Findings .. 9 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 14 Domestic Land-Use Change 20 Literature Review Findings .. 21 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value.

5 26 Domestic Rice Methane 30 Literature Review Findings .. 30 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 35 Domestic Livestock 36 Literature Review Findings .. 37 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 39 International Livestock Emissions 42 Literature Review Findings .. 42 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 43 International Land-Use Change 46 Literature Review Findings .. 46 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 55 International Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O 62 Literature Review Findings.

6 62 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 66 International Rice Methane 69 Literature Review Findings .. 69 EPA RIA and ICF Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 70 Fuel and Feedstock Transport 73 Literature Review Findings .. 73 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 73 Fuel Production 77 Literature Review Findings .. 77 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 79 Tailpipe 83 Literature Review Findings .. 83 EPA RIA and Current Condition GHG Emissions Value .. 84 Aggregating Source Category GHG Emissions into a Current GHG Profile for Corn Ethanol 85 PROJECTED GHG EMISSIONS SCENARIOS FOR CORN ETHANOL IN 2022: BUSINESS-AS-USUAL (BAU) AND HIGH EFFICIENCY-HIGH CONSERVATION (HEHC).

7 87 Key Parameters and BAU and HEHC Scenarios 87 Domestic Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O 88 Methodology: 2022 BAU Scenario .. 88 A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol CONTENTS | ii Methodology: 2022 HEHC Scenario .. 89 Domestic Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O Results .. 91 Domestic Land-Use Change 92 Methodology .. 92 Domestic Land-Use Change Results .. 93 Fuel Production 93 Methodology .. 93 Fuel Production Results .. 94 Fuel and Feedstock Transportation 95 Methodology.

8 95 Fuel and Feedstock Transportation Results .. 96 Summary of the 2022 BAU and 2022 HEHC Scenarios Results 97 Summary 99 REFERENCES .. 100 A Life-Cycle Analysis of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Corn-Based Ethanol CONTENTS | iii Figures Figure 1-1: Summary of Data Sources and Models Used in the Development of the Eleven Emission 2 Figure 1-2: Summary of LCA emission Factors Showing the Relative Contributions Across the 11 Emission Categories .. 3 Figure 2-1: Changes in Corn Production Practices from 2005 to 2010.

9 13 Figure 2-2: Map of Average 2006 2010 Major and Minor Rice Crop Areas ..31 Figure 2-3: Map of Average 2006 2010 Major and Minor Corn Crop Areas ..31 Figure 2-4: Corn Only Scenario Compared to Control Scenario: Changes in Harvested Hectares by 2022 ..50 Figure 2-5: Comparison of International Land-use Change Emissions Related to Increases in Corn Ethanol Production - Various Sources ..51 Figure 2-6: Extensive and Intensive Land-use Changes: 2004 2006 to 2010 2012 from FAOSTAT ..53 Figure 2-7: Comparison of Brazilian Deforestation (sq.)

10 Km) and Corn Ethanol Production (billion gallons) by Year ..55 Figure 2-8: Literature and ICF Values for International Land-Use Change Due to Corn Ethanol Figure 2-9: GREET Process Maps for Fuel and Feedstock Transportation ..75 Figure 2-10: Fuel and Feedstock Transportation Emissions ..76 Figure 2-11: Ethanol Industry Corn Utilization and Average Yield, 1982 2014 ..78 Figure 2-12: Comparison of EPA-RIA and ICF Carbon Intensities ..86 Figure 3-1: Range of Emissions for the Domestic Farm Inputs and Fertilizer N2O Emission Category Based on Adoption of usda Conservation Practice Standards.