再保険マーケット・アウトルック - aon.com

1 1 reinsurance market outlook 1 2 2 3 4 7 7 9 1 10 10 10 14 10 14 2017 14 17 Contact Information 19 Aon Benfield 1 8 25 2004 2017 2 reinsurance market outlook 2016 2017 6 30 2% 6,050 6 30 5,160 10% 890 1.

2 Aon Benfield Analytics 17 22 19 22 24 28 44 50 64 72 81 89 368 388 321 378 447 428 461 490 511 493 514 516 6% -17% 18% 18% -3% 11% 7% 6% -2% 5% 2% 385 410 340 400 470 455 505 540 575 565 595 605 0100200300400500600700200620072008200920 10201120122013201420152016H12017 USD (billions) Traditional capitalAlternative capitalGlobal reinsurer capitalAon Benfield 3 10 40% Aon Benfield Aggregates ABA 21 10 59% 770 M&A 2 ABA : Aon Benfield Analytics 1 Aon Benfield Aggregate 21 50% 122 138 114 146 148 150 174 175 185 180 184 191 130 146 122 152 157 162 185 187 198 194 201 207 0501001502002502006200720082009201020112 01220132014201520161H 2017 USD (billions) Common equityPreferred sharesMinoritiesTotal equityH1 2017 4 reinsurance market outlook 2011 3 ILS 3 ILS Manager Assets under management (USD billion)

3 January 2015 January 2016 January 2017 June 2017 Nephila Capital Credit Suisse ILS LGT ILS Partners Stone Ridge Asset Management Fermat Capital Management Securis Investment Partners Markel CATCo Leadenhall Capital Partners Twelve Capital Aeolus Capital Management AlphaCat Managers Elementum Advisors Schroder Investment Management RenaissanceRe Holdings Pioneer Investments Total : ILS ILS Aon Benfield 5 ILS 4 : Aon Securities Inc. 0102030405060708090 Limit (USD billions) Catastrophe bondsSidecarsILWsCollateralized re6 reinsurance market outlook 2017 144A 62 3 85 2017 6 30 261 5 : Aon Securities Inc.

4 3 2 3 2 6 10 ILS 500 2 SPV 80 ILW 40 2,650 1,757 3,588 3,973 5,902 4,656 3,015 8,547 2,625 2,843 2,692 3,498 2,325 2,175 2,775 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,00 09,0002010201120122013201420152016H1 2017 USD (millions) January - JuneJuly - DecemberAon Benfield 7 10 6.

5 S&P Global market Intelligence II 317 355 406 446 467 479 496 499 489 475 477 495 516 539 564 586 608 56 68 73 78 68 65 64 65 68 66 63 70 71 72 73 80 83 0%5%10%15%20%25%0100200300400500600700 USD (billions) Direct premiums writtenCeded premiums written (non-affiliates)Ceded (percent)8 reinsurance market outlook 7 : S&P Global market Intelligence 2 Best 2017 BCAR BCAR 100 2 2017 RBC 23 22 24 28 30 35 39 42 37 34 31 29 27 26 26 27 28 31 32 35 39 11 11 12 13 13 16 18 19 19 18 21 23 28 26 24 29 28 27 27 30 29 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 7 7 7 8 9 13 11 11 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 0102030405060708090 USD (billions)

6 CasualtyPropertyHomeowners'OtherAon Benfield 9 9 8 2019 5% 8 2017 7 London Centre for Global Disaster Protection ILS 2017 6 7 200 10 reinsurance market outlook 1 ILS 2017 1 1 3 10 2017 8 245 10 56% 187 90% 8.

7 0204060801001201401602007200820092010201 120122013201420152016 August2017 USD billions DroughtEarthquakeEU windstormFloodingOtherSevere weatherTropical cycloneWildfireWinter weather : Impact Forecasting Aon Benfield 11 10 8 9 3 9: Named storms Hurricanes Major hurricanes TSR (May 2017) 1950-2016 average 11 6 3 2017 17 (+3) 6 (same) 3 (same) CSU (June 2017) 1981-2010 median 2017 16 (+2) 8 (+2) 3 (+1) NOAA (May 2017) 1981-2010 average 12 6 3 2017 14-19 (+3-2) 5-9 (same) 2-5 (+0-1) : reinsurance market outlook 7 : TSR CSU NOAA 10 2011 Standard & Poor s S&P 250 2016 2017 40% S&P AAA A 12 reinsurance market outlook 2016 2017 2018 4 2017 2 3

8 7 11 JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon 2008 3 3,000 2017 7 2017 600 M&A M&A 2017 M&A 2015 M&A Aon Benfield 13 10: M&A Announced Completed Buyer Target Target GPW (USD billions) Value (USD billions) Price to book (x) Nov-14 Mar-15 RenRe Platinum Jan-15 May-15 XL Catlin Feb-15 Jul-15 Fairfax Brit Mar-15 Jul-15 Endurance Montpelier Re May-15 Nov-15 Fosun Ironshore Jun-15 Oct-15 Tokio Marine HCC Jul-15 Jan-16 ACE Chubb Jul-15 Apr-16 China Minsheng Sirius Aug-15 Mar-16 EXOR PartnerRe Sep-15 Feb-16 Mitsui Sumitomo Amlin Apr-16 Nov-16 AmTrust ANV Aug-16 Jan-17 Arch United Guaranty Sep-16 Dec-16 Canada Pension Plan Ascot Oct-16 Mar-17 Sompo Endurance Oct-16 Apr-17 PartnerRe Aurigen Oct-16 Shenzhen Qianhai Asia Capital Re Nov-16 Feb-17 Argo Ariel Re Dec-16 May-17 Liberty Mutual Ironshore Dec-16 Jul-17 Fairfax Allied World Mar-17 Jul-17 Hannover Re Argenta Jul-17 AXIS Novae Jul-17 Markel State National Aug-17 Centerbridge Sompo Canopius.

9 Aon Benfield Analytics MGA MGA MGA EU 14 reinsurance market outlook 10 Aon Benfield Aggregate ABA 2016 10 ROE 2017 Ogden discount rate 2017 Impact Forecasting 530 220 10 44% 65% ABA 2017 900 1% 2% 690 5% 36 Ogden discount rate 15 30% 25 11: ABA -10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%H1 2011H1 2012H1 2013H1 2014H1 2015H1 2016H1 2017 Major loss ratioAttritional loss ratioExpense ratioPrior year reserve adjustment.

10 Aon Benfield Analytics Aon Benfield 15 ABA 2017 140 7,890 12: ABA : Aon Benfield Analytics 2017 10 6% 104 13: ABA : Aon Benfield Analytics 1%2%3%4%5%6%2006200720082009201020112012 2013201420152016H12017 Tot