* Closing Price of July 24, 2018 - ICICI Direct

1 ICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKB ulls rising from slumber, stage set for relief 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | retail equity Research1 Gladiator StocksCY18has,sofar, ,benchmarkshavecorrected13%fromhighs,led byconcernsovercurrentaccountdeficit, ,alongwithasharpcorrectioninthemidcapand smallcapspace,hasleftinvestorswithquesti onslike Isabearmarketaheadofus? or Declinesshouldbeboughtinto? ,aheadofQ2FY19earnings,festivalseason, ,alongwithtimecyclestudiesandbreadthindi cators, : Weexpectthecurrentindexdeclinetobeanchor edaround9900-10000andtheNiftytoheadtowar ds11400byendofCY18 Currentlyinfluentialeight-weektimecyclei ntheNiftysincethebeginningofCY18pointtow ardsmaturityoftheongoingdeclineinOctober ,followedbyafreshuplegtopanoutthroughDec ember2018aheadofstateelectionresults SeasonalityforQ4 CYbasedonpast22yearsdataofNiftyindex,poi nttowardsaverage10%gaineverycalendaryear inQ4,barring1998.

2 Thusfavouringabullishstance Marketbreadthasmeasuredbypercentageofsto cksabove200daymovingaverageforNifty500is approachingitsbearishextremessuggestinga potentialturnaroundinsentiment, , OutlookTechnical Strategy NSE Nifty Monthly ChartTarget@11400 Indexsupport@9900 Nifty 10460 Sectors likely to OutperformScripI- Direct CodeSectorBuying RangeTargetStop lossUpside%State Bank of IndiaSTABANBFSI265-280310 242 14 ITCITCFMCG260-271298 247 12 Tata SteelTATSTEM etals575-585655 537 13 SectorStocks likely to outperformBFSISBI, Axis bankOil & GasReliancePharmaSun Pharma, Aurobindo PharmaFMGCITC, Dabur India, MaricoMetalTata Steel, Hindustan ZincCapital GoodsL&T, ABBS ource:Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchResearch AnalystsDharmesh ShahNitin Kunte, CMTP abitro Tamhanekar, CMTV inayak Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKTime cycle favours bottom in October 2018 October 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd.

3 | retail equity Research2 Nifty weekly candlestick chart ThemostinfluentialtimecyclesinceDecember 2017,isthatofeightweeksofeachdirectional leg InthepreviousthreeralliessinceDecember20 17,eachupleghaslastedforeightweeks,separ atedbyintermediatecorrectivephases,alsol astingforaboutseventoeightweeks Weexpecttheindextofollowitsrhythmandongo ingcorrectivephasetomaturebylateOctober, followedbyabullphaseofseventoeightweeks Eachoftheprecedingthreeuplegshavemeasure daverage1100pointsinmagnitudeTechnical ObservationsSource:Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearch8 Weeks8 Weeks7 Weeks8 Weeks8 Weeks11760111711003399521092910418105571 0139 Major support @ 9900977points1203points1138pointsProject edPathMost influential 8-week time cycle projects bottom in October 2018, followed by a eight week of directional up legICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKC onventional charting projects Nifty @ 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd.

4 | retail equity Research3 NSE Nifty Monthly chartWithinconventionalchartanalysis, , )Itisabullmarketcorrection:Since2008,weh aveseeneightoccasionswhenindexcorrection wasgreaterthan10%.Outofeight,sixtimesave ragecorrectionhasbeenof15%.Inthecurrents cenario,weexpecttheindextorespectthisrhy thmprojectingsupportinthevicinityof10000 levels,followedbyanuplegB)Goingforward,w eexpecttheindextoformabasearound9900-100 00andthenembarkuponarallytowards11400asi tistheconfluenceof-80%correctionofrecent decline(11760-10198)at11447and-mid-Septe mber2018breakdownareaat11400C)Wedonotfor eseetheindexgoingbelowitsmajorvalueareaa roundthe9900regionasitistheconfluenceoff ollowing.

5 (i) (7893-11760)at9875,(ii)March2018swinglow at9952,(iii)15%correction(averageofpasts ixevents)projectssupportaround9996D) ,suchreadingshaveledtobottomformationdur ing2016andearly2018withsimilarmagnitudeo fdeclinesTarget@114001117168269119896999 527893 Majorlongtermsupportareaaround9900 @9875 ,sixoutofeightcorrectionssince2008lowsha veaveraged15%.Inthecurrentcontext,simila rmagnitudeprojectsasupportforNiftyaround 10000 Nifty Index: Corrections since 2008 FromToFromToJun'09 Jul'094693391817 Jan'10 May'105310467512 Nov'10 Dec'116338453129 Feb'12 May'125629477015 May'13 Aug'136229511818 Mar'15 Feb'169119682525 Sep'16 Dec'168968789312 Jan'18 Mar'1811171995211 Sep'18117601019813 Average17 Average excluding 2010 and 201515 PriceTimeCorrection (%)Source.

6 Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICK-50510152025303519961997199819992000 2001200220032004200520062007200820092010 2011201220132014201520162017% ReturnCalendar YearReturns (%) October -DecemberSeasonality favours 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | retail equity Research4 Nifty Index Togetasenseofseasonaltrendsforindexretur ns,wehavelookedathistoricaldatasince1996 (yearwhentheNiftywaslaunched).Thehistory showstheseasonalityprofileskewedinfavour ofupsideforQ4 CYastheNiftyhasgainedin21outof22yearsinQ 4CY, ,theindexhasgained10%ascalculatedfromthe SeptemberclosetothehighestvalueduringOct ober December, December2018 Average gain of 10%Source:Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKM arket breadth approaching bearish 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd.

7 | retail equity Research5 Nifty500:% WhileNiftycorrected13%overpastmonth,them idcapandsmallcapuniversecontinuedtofacer elentlesssellingpressure, ,aftersharpfall,manyhavegonefarbelowthel ongtermaverageandcouldleadtoexhaustionin downwardmomentumfollowedbyameanreversion Onewaytogaugetheoversoldmarkets, OutofNifty500,currently90%ofthestocksare tradingbelowtheirlongtermaverage(200 SMA).Whencomparedhistorically,suchabeari shextremehasoftenledtoabottomingoutofind ex, ,similarreadingsuggestthatindexislikelyt obottomoutovernextfewsessionsandstageade centpullbackrallyPercentageofstocksabove 200dayaveragehavereached10%,whichhasbeen historicallythebearishextremeandcoincide dwithmarketbottomsSource.

8 Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchNifty 500 Daily chart50015002500350045005500650075008500 9500105000102030405060708090100200220032 0042005200620072008200920102011201220132 0142015201620172018In % % of Stocks above 200dma% Stocks above 200 DMAN ifty 500 ICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKR upee( ):Pre-electionrelieflikelyOctober 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | retail equity Research6 Pasttwodecadesdatahighlights:a)Rupeehasa lwaysseensharpdepreciation(average:12%)d uring12monthsaheadofGeneralElectionb)How ever,during0-6monthspriorelections,volat ilitysubsidesleadingtoconsolidationInthe currentcontext,wehavealreadyseena16% , ,thecurrentdeclinehasledthedomesticcurre ncytowardsitskeysupportzonearound75level sTherupeehasapproacheditskeysupportof75a sitisa) ( )andb)priceparityofthepreviousrallyofCY1 4-15fromJanuary2018low( ) ,weexpecttherupeetoconsolidateinthebroad rangeof70-75,goingforwardArapiddepreciat ionoftherupeeagainstthedollarhasbeenofco ncernoverthepastfewmonths, ,welookedata)

9 Thepre-GeneralElectionrupeeperformanceov erthepasttwodecadesandb) return prior to Indian General MonthClosing Before Election Month% Return 3 M prior to General Election % Return 6 M prior to General Election% Return 1Y prior to General Election spot (Inverted scale)Key support at 75 Source:Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKS tate Bank of India (STABAN): Favourable risk/rewards set Thestockhasbeenconsolidatinginthebroadra ngeof| , |149to| ,thestockhasbeentakingsupportattherising trendlinecurrentlyaround|254,whichalsoco incideswiththe50%retracementofthepreviou smajorupmove(|149to|351), |250to| , | 12, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd.

10 | retail equity Research7 Technical OutlookTrendline resistance @ | 310 Thestockhasmajorsupportat250beingtheconf luenceof:-Trendlinesupportjoininglowssin ceMarch2016-50%retracementofthepreviousm ajorupmove(|149to351) Upside14%Market (| Cr.)23810852 Weeks High/Low351/23250/200 Days EMA 289/278MF , , , , Bar chartKey HighlightsState Bank of India vs. NiftySource:Bloomberg,ICICID irectResearchInitiated on i-click to gain on 10thOctober 2018 at 14:25 hrsICICI Securities retail equity ResearchMOMENTUM PICKITC (ITC): Stock poised at key value area, offering fresh entry , , ,pricescontinuedtoformahigherpeakandtrou ghontheweeklychart, , |252 323,at|268coincidingwithupwardslopingtre ndline(asshowninadjacentchart).