Transcription of Daily Markets Overview - Yardeni Research
1 market Briefing: Daily Markets OverviewYardeni Research , 21, 2022Dr. Edward visit our sites outside the boxTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsJanuary 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 500 Index & Sectors1P/Es & VIX2 Bonds3 Yield Curve4-5 High Yield Bonds6 Municipal Bond Yields7 Dollar & Commodities8 Growth vs Value9S&P 500 Equal-Weighted vs. Cap-Weighted10 Foreign Interest Rates11 IIIIIIIVIIIIIIIVIIIIIIIV2020202120222200 2400260028003000320034003600380040004200 4400460048002200240026002800300032003400 3600380040004200440046004800S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX(ratio scale, Daily )1/21 Source: Standard & Poor : Dotted lines show previous years closing price 4 5 6 7 101112131418192021242526272831-15-10-505 10152025303540455055-15-10-5051015202530 3540455055S&P SECTORS PERFORMANCE.
2 JANUARY 2022 MONTH-TO-DATE(percent change from last trading day of December)January 2022S&P 500 Index ( )Consumer Discretionary ( )Consumer Staples ( )Energy ( )Financials ( )Health Care ( )Industrials ( )Information Technology ( )Materials ( )Real Estate ( )CommunicationServices ( )Utilities ( )Source: Standard & Poor 2022 M-T-D29 500 Index & SectorsPage 1 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024810121416182022242628810121416182022 242628 FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*( Daily )1/21S&P Forward P/EsS&P 500 ( )S&P 400 ( )S&P 600 ( )* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per.
3 Standard & Poor s and I/B/E/S data by 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2401020304050607080901000102030405060708 090100 VIX: S&P 5001/21 Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic : Chicago Board Options & VIXPage 2 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-20246-202461/211/2110-YEAR TREASURY vs 10-YEAR TIPS(percent, Daily )Source.
4 Federal Reserve TreasuryBond Yield ( )TIPS Yield ( ) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )WIDELY USED PROXY FOR 10-YEAR EXPECTED INFLATION RATE*(percent, Daily )1/21 Expected Inflation Proxy ( )* Nominal 10-year US Treasury bond yield minus 10-year TIPS.
5 Federal Reserve 3 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , TREASURY 10-YEAR & 2-YEAR YIELDS & FED FUNDS RATE(percent, Daily )1/21 Interest Rates10-Year Yield ( )2-Year Yield ( )Fed FundsTarget Rate ( )Source: Federal Reserve YIELD CURVE SPREAD*(basis points, Daily )1/21 Latest (163)* 10-Year Treasury yield less federal funds target rateSource: Federal Reserve CurvePage 4 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , TREASURY NOTE YIELD & FEDERAL FUNDS RATE FUTURES(percent)1/21 Interest Rates2-Year Treasury Yield ( )Fed Funds Rate12-month Forward Futures ( )Federal Funds Target Rate ( )Source: US Treasury & Chicago Mercantile GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS(percent, Daily )1/2110-Year YieldsGermany ( )Japan ( )US ( )Source.
6 Haver CurvePage 5 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , ON US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE BONDS(percent, Daily )1/20 Latest ( )Source: Bank of America Merrill : Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic SPREAD US HIGH-YIELD CORPORATE LESS 10-YEAR US TREASURY BOND(basis points, Daily )1/20 Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic : Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Federal Reserve Yield BondsPage 6 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AAA MUNICIPAL YIELD(percent)Yield ( )Source.
7 Merrill 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025-150-100-50050100150200250-150-100-5 0050100150200250US AAA MUNICIPAL BOND YIELD LESS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD SPREAD(basis points, Daily )1/20 Spread (-57)Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic : Merrill Lynch and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bond YieldsPage 7 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , MORGAN NOMINAL BROAD EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE(2010=100, Daily )
8 1/21* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United : JP PRICES1/201/21 Brent Crude Oil Price(dollars per barrel)CRB Raw Industrials Index(1967=100) Source: Haver & CommoditiesPage 8 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 500 GROWTH & VALUE PRICE INDEX RELATIVE TO S&P 5001/211/21 Relative to S&P 500* * Rising (falling) line indicates that the index is outperforming (underperforming) the S&P.
9 Standard & Poor s and Haver 500 GROWTH vs VALUE SPREAD(yearly percent change spread, basis points)S&P 500 Growth Outperforms S&P 500 ValueS&P 500 Growth Underperforms S&P 500 ValueSource: Standard & Poor s and Haver vs ValuePage 9 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 500 RATIO: EQUAL-WEIGHTED TO market -CAP-WEIGHTED1 : Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2425010001750250032504000475055006250700 0775025010001750250032504000475055006250 700077501 500 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(ratio scale) market -cap-weighted S&P 500 Equal-weighted S&P 500 Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor 500 Equal-Weighted vs.
10 Cap-WeightedPage 10 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , OFFICIAL RATE & GERMAN 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD(percent)10-Year German Bond Yield ( )ECB Deposit Facility Rate ( )Source: European Central Bank and Haver Interest RatesPage 11 / January 21, 2022 / Daily Markets Overview Research , (c) Yardeni Research , Inc. 2022. All rights reserved. The informationcontained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is notnecessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation orwarranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, orcorrectness of the information and opinions contained herein.
