Transcription of FX Monthly - 三菱UFJ銀行
1 FX Monthly | 5 2023 9 29 1 Table of contents 1 2 3 4 1. 1 150 .. 2 9 FOMC 150 2 ECB .. 7 3 BOE .. 12 4 .. 16 5 .. 18 6 .. 20 FX Monthly GLOBAL MARKETS RESEARCH UFJ A member of MUFG, a global financial group 5 2023 9 29 | 5 2023 9 29 2 150 1 ISM 146 5 147 9 11 145 12 147 147 148 19 20 FOMC FF 148 21 22 FOMC 26 149 27 10 28 150 1 9 2
2 1 : 2 : 8 9 29 14 EBS UFJ 9 29 14 Bloomberg UFJ (%)9 | 5 2023 9 29 3 9 FOMC 1 FF 6 50bp 3 11 12 2 FOMC 1 100bp 50bp 2007 8 4 FOMC 11 9 50bp FOMC 10 1 6
3 10 6 9 UAW UAW 30% 20% 1 9 FOMC | 5 2023 9 29 4 11 FOMC FF 3 : FOMC FF 4 : FRB UFJ Bloomberg UFJ 7 8 2 9 9 9 6 1 3 run(%)
4 22 3 22 6 22 9 22 12 23 3 23 6 23 9 0123456 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23(%)2 5 10 10 | 5 2023 9 29 5 3 1 YCC YCC 8 YCC YCC 10
5 9 5 7 2 7 + 1 2,000 3,000 1 | 5 2023 9 29 6 3,000 5 : 1 : 7 UFJ UFJ 150 29 10 G20 150 23 10 12 24 1 3 4 6 7 9 17 -2-1012345 Jan-20
6 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23(%) + + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >+ + + + <+ > <+ >1 2025 4 2023 4 1 2024 4 | 5 2023 9 29 7 2 ECB 9 14 9 ECB ECB 25bp 21 FOMC 27 1 6 1 157 158 11 13 14 ECB 156
7 2 1 2 Bloomberg UFJ Bloomberg UFJ 9 ECB 1 9 3 PMI 50 4 / 15015215415615816016223/0723/0823/09 / 9 | 5 2023 9 29 8 28 4 1 OECD 2 3 : 4 : PMI UFJ S&P Global UFJ 1 : 2.
8 OECD ifo UFJ OECD UFJ 8 HICP + -60-40-2002040-35-30-25-20-15-10-50 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 10203040506070 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 50 PMI PMI20212022202320242025 GDP 44,98445,59645,91046,03846,008 2,6132,4182,5922,5822,462 % GDP % GDP % (% 2022 9 6 9 6 | 5 2023 9 29 9 9 ECB 25bp ECB ECB ECB 4% ECB 4% 2025 2% ECB)
9 14 GDP ECB 2023 2024 ECB 3 3 : ECB 4 : GDP HICP ECB UFJ Bloomberg UFJ FOMC % 2022202320242025 GDP 9 9 10 12 24 1 3 % % ( 9 28 2023/09/142023/09/28 ECB | 5 2023 9 29 10 50bp ECB 4 7 9 27 PP 2 29 29 PSOE 9 27 2 3)
10 3 1 8 24 2 3 9 27 48 9 29 4. 3. 2 9 29 5. 9 27 2 1 UFJ 10 9 FOMC FRB | 5 2023 9 29 11 ECB 9 10 27 2024 GDP 4% EU 3% 3
