High Frequency Indicators - Yardeni Research

1 US economic Briefing: high Frequency IndicatorsYardeni Research , 1, 2020Dr. Edward visit our sites outside the boxTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsTable Of ContentsApril 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , Global Indicators1 Global Boom Bust Barometer2US Leading Indicators3 ECRI4 Citigroup economic Surprise Index5US Unemployment Claims6-7US Petroleum Usage8US Electricity Output9-10US Railcar Loadings11-14US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits15US Business Credit16 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey17US Commercial Paper18US Liquid Assets19-20US Profits Cycle21-23 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 50024 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count25959697989900010203040506070809101 1121314151617181920212240506070809010011 0120130140150160170180200250300350400450 5005506006504/1 JanINDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTSCRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)Volume of World Exports(2005=100, sa) * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and : The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for economic COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTSCRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*(1967=100)Value of World Exports (IMF)(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.

2 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and Global IndicatorsPage 1 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER** Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by : The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver PRICES: INDUSTRIAL vs CRUDE OILCRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index*Brent Crude Oil Futures Price**(dollars per barrel)* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.** Nearby futures : The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Boom Bust BarometerPage 2 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , Board LEI(2016=100)FebLEADING economic INDICATORSECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)8/30 FebSource: The Conference Board and economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

3 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic Board CEI(2016=100)FebLEADING & COINCIDENT economic INDICATORSECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100, 4-wa)8/30 FebSource: Conference Board and economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic Leading IndicatorsPage 3 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022105110115120125130135140145150155160 1652200200018001600140012001000800600400 2000-200 ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & high YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD(basis points, inverted scale)4/18/30 high -YieldCorporate Spread*ECRI Weekly Leading Index(1992=100) Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic Research .

4 * high yield corporate less 10-year Treasury : Merrill Lynch, Federal Reserve Board, and economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022400600800100012001400160018002000220 0240026002800300032003400105110115120125 1301351401451501551601651701751801851901 952002058/304/1S&P 500 INDEX & ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEXECRI WeeklyLeading Index(1992=100)S&P 500 Index Source: Standard & Poor s and economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 4 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , SURPRISE INDEX(percent)4/1 Latest ( ) : Blue shaded areas denote first half of each : economic SURPRISE INDEX(percent)Based on G10 Currencies (11) : economic Surprise IndexPage 5 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa)3/21 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic : US Department of UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(thousands, sa, four-week moving average)3/21 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic : US Department of Unemployment ClaimsPage 6 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa)1/4 Continuing +Extended* : Bureau of Labor.

5 Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic Research .* Extended claims are UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS(millions, sa, four-week moving average)1/4 FebNumber ofUnemployedContinuingContinuing +Extended* : Bureau of Labor : Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic Research .* Extended claims are Unemployment ClaimsPage 7 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2216171819202122161718192021223/27US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED(million barrels per day, 52-week ma)Total* ( )* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other.

6 US Department of Energy and Haver 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELEDG asoline Usage(million barrels per day, 52-wa)Vehicle Miles Traveled(trillion miles, 12-month sum) Source: US Department of Petroleum UsagePage 8 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT*(GW hours, 52-week moving average)* Excluding Hawaii and : Edison Electric ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP(yearly percent change)Electric Utility Output(52-week moving average)Real GDP* Excluding Hawaii and : Edison Electric Electricity OutputPage 9 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs.

7 PRODUCTION(52-week moving average)Electricity Output(GW hours)Total Manufacturing Production * Excluding Hawaii and : Edison Electric ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP(52-week moving average)Real GDP(billion dollars, saar)Electricity Output(GW hours) * Excluding Hawaii and : Edison Electric Electricity OutputPage 10 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224004505005506004004505005506003/28 RAILCAR LOADINGS*(thousand units, 26-wa)Total (485)Source: Atlantic Systems.* Carloads plus 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022150200250300350400150200250300350400 3/28 RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)CarloadsIntermodalSource: Atlantic Railcar LoadingsPage 11 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2251015202530510152025303/28 FebRAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLESM otor VehiclesLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa)Sales(million units, saar)Source.

8 Atlantic Systems and Haver 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2220050080011001400170020002300260023456 73/28 RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTSL umber & Wood ProductsLoadings(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)Housing Starts(thousand units, saar) Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Railcar LoadingsPage 12 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22607080901001101201301401501603/28 RAILCAR LOADINGS(thousand units, 26-wa)Coal90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2234567891011123/28 Nonmetallic Minerals90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22303234363840424446483/28 Chemicals & PetroleumProducts90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22567891011123/28 Pulp & PaperProducts90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2246810121416183/28 Metals & ProductsSource.

9 Atlantic Systems and American Trucking 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22678910113/28 Waste & Railcar LoadingsPage 13 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022707580859095100105110115120125110130 1501701902102302502703/28 FebATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGSR ailcar Loadings:Intermodal Containers(thousand units, nsa, 26-wa) ( )ATA Truck Tonnage Index(2015=100, sa) ( ) Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 221020304050607080901020304050607080903/ 28 RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS(thousand units, 26-wa)Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Railcar LoadingsPage 14 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL(billion dollars)Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes(260-day sum)Receipts: Individual Income Taxes PlusSocial Insurance and Retirement Receipts*(12-month sum)* Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other : US Treasury and Haver TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS.

10 CORPORATE INCOME TAXES(billion dollars)Deposits(260-day sum)Receipts(12-month sum)Source US Treasury and Haver Federal Tax Receipts & DepositsPage 15 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2240060080010001200140016001800200022002 4002600280030003200400600800100012001400 160018002000220024002600280030003200 JanSHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES(billion dollars)3/18C&I Loans PlusNonfinancialCommercial Paper(nsa)Manufacturing & TradeInventories(sa)Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of economic : Census 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2260100140180220260300340380420601001401 802202603003403804203/25 COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS(billion dollars, nsa)NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER(billion dollars, nsa)Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Business CreditPage 16 / April 1, 2020 / high Frequency Indicators Research , 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2234567825751251752252753253754254755255 753/27 MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALESM ortgage Applications.