Integrated Water Resources Management for Water and …

1 Monireh Water Resources Management for Water and Food Security in IranEawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology5thInternational SWAT Conference, Colorado, Boulder, August 2009 introduction , objectives and goal Modeling Water Resources availability Modeling crop Water use and CWP Climate change impact assessment Multi-criteria decision analysisContent:IntroductionIncreased Water Demand for:Population and Economic GrowthAgricultureDomesticIndustryEnviron mentWater scarcity &Climate changeChallengessustainabilityAn Integrated Water Management is necessary for Integrated Water ResourcesManagement(IWRM)Food securityWater Resources qualityEcosystem conservationStakeholdersWater resourcesquantityFlood-DroughtSocio-econ omicconcequencesSoil Management (Erosion) Water resourcesquantityStakeholdersSocio-econo micconsequencesFood securityAgricultureWater scarcity &Climate change1.

2 Quantification of blueand greenwater Resources Accounting for crop Water use and Assessment of climate change Optimizing the regional WUE and feasibilityasessment of the virtual Water introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookObjective 1:Modeling Blue and Green Water Resources Availability in IranPicture: Fereidoonshahr, Esfahan, IranHydrological Processes, 2009, 23:486-501 introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookBlue and green waterRoot ZoneShallow (unconfined) AquiferUnsaturatedZoneConfining LayerDeep (confined) AquiferPrecipitationSurface runoffLateral FlowReturn FlowRecharge to deep aquiferBLUE WATERE vaporation and TranspirationGREEN Water FLOWSoil waterGREEN Water STORAGE(Sch ol, 2007, 4th SWAT conference)

3 introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookIran SWAT Project : 506 sub-basin Area: million km2 introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookPrecipitationBlue waterGreen Water flowGreen Water storageObjective 2:Modeling crop yield, Water use, and productivity in IranSubmitted (2009)Yield calibration (1990-2002) introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookKhorasan_South [P_factor: , Rm_factor.]

4 ] wheat yield (ton ha-1)95 PPU SWAT predictionMOJA observed dataET (Crop consumptive Water use) introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlook95 PPU SWAT prediction (ET)95 PPU SWAT prediction (ETG)95 PPU SWAT prediction (ETB)MOJA estimated ETCrop Water ProductivityIntroduction, Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate nceCWP of irrigated wheat (kg m-3)02468101214 Irrigated wheat yield (ton ha-1)Avg-95 PPU simulated yieldMedianPolicy implications: introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlook1.

5 Assessment of irrigation application2. Assessment of fertilizer application3. Assessment of improvements in soil Water retention capacity4. Assessment of Water -use sustainability(NRC, proceeding of Iranian-American Workshop on Water and food security, 2005)Policy implications:Assessment of Water -use sustainabilityWater supplyWater availabilityCrop Water useWater ratio (km3 km-3)Ratio > 100%40% < Ratio < 100%Ratio < 40% / IRWR ratio (km3 km-3)Ratio > 100%40% < Ratio < 100%Ratio < 40% introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlookObjective 3.

6 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of IranWater Resources Research (in press) The CGCM downscaled for 37 climate stations across the country for scenariosA1B, B1 and A2 based on the cliamte data period of 1980-2002. The downscaled formulations were then used to transform the CGCM s precipitation and temperatue data for periods 2010-2040and Global Couple ModelIntroduction, Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactOutlook1980-2002 Precipitation2010-20402070-21001980-2002 Blue water2010-20402070-2100 Objective 4:Multicriteria decision analysisfor an Integrated Water Management of IranWater and Food security.

7 Intra-country virtual Water tradeEmbodied Water (virtual Water content) in major cropsProducing 1 kg of Climate condition How much Water ?Grain favorable 1-2 (m3)Grain Unfavorable <3-5 (m3) Wheat (m3)Rice (m3) Soybean (m3) introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactMCDALand use change (Crop pattern change)

8 Total Income > = historicWheat self-sufficinceyWater scarcity index<= solutionLand resource endowmentsAgricultiral productivityClimateSocio-economicStakeho lderWater Resources endowmentsYesNo1. Strategy:2. Goal:3. Criteria:4. Decision:5. Solution: introduction , Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactMCDAI ntroduction, Main goal & ObjectivesModeling Water ResourcesModelingCrop Water Use & ProductivityClimate ChangeImpactMCDAK horasan RangeSustainability Solution SpaceHistoric (1992-2004)RUJ:Rural Urban JusticeIS:Income stabilityFI:Farm IncomeWSS:Wheat SelfsufficiencyWSR: Water Scarcity RatioSSP Model(Wiek & Binder, 2005)EawagETH Z rich