LIFE SAVERS NOT REVENUE RAISERS- SAFETY CAMERAS IN …

1 LIFE SAVERS NOT REVENUE RAISERS- SAFETY CAMERAS IN IRELAND: A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS Derek Rafferty Department of Economics University of Dublin Trinity College Dissertation submitted to Trinity College Dublin in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science ( ) in Economic Policy Studies July 2014 i DECLARATION I declare that this dissertation, submitted to Trinity College Dublin for the degree of Master of Science ( ) in Economic Policy Studies has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at this or any other university. All research contained herewith is entirely my own.

2 Date: July 4, 2014. Signature: _____ Derek Rafferty. I ii Summary Despite excellent progress over the last decade or so, road traffic collisions still remain a significant cause of death and injury in Ireland. Each year almost 200 people are killed and close to 6,000 are injured on the Irish road network. Irish and international research indicates that upto 30% of road collisions have speed as a contributory factor. Measures to reduce traffic speed are considered key to reducing casualties on the road . Increasing use of technology is seen as the way forward in the battle against road deaths.

3 In Ireland speed or SAFETY CAMERAS are one technological innovation used to help reduce traffic speeds, traffic collisions, and casualties. A major expansion of the SAFETY camera network has been underway in Ireland since 2011, led at national level by An Garda S och na and endorsed by all the key stakeholders in the road SAFETY arena. The Government hopes that the SAFETY camera initiative will help it achieve its road SAFETY targets over the next few years. Studies have been carried out around the world and have consistently shown that considerable road SAFETY benefits are achieved with SAFETY camera programmes.

4 No major piece of analysis of the possible impacts of SAFETY CAMERAS on road SAFETY was carried out in Ireland before or after their widespread introduction. This study carried out a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis in respect of the national SAFETY camera network in Ireland (operated by the private company GoSafe). The critical part of the analysis was an assessment of the effectiveness of SAFETY CAMERAS in reducing the numbers of deaths and injuries on Irish roads. In order to isolate the impact of the CAMERAS on road accidents a controlled before and after study was used to compare fatalities and injuries at sites where SAFETY CAMERAS were positioned vis- -vis sites which did not have any camera present.

5 Time trend, seasonality, traffic levels and regression to mean were controlled for. The costs of installing and operating SAFETY CAMERAS were contrasted with the monetary value of benefits brought about by their presence on the Irish road network. This included the annual income generated by speeding fines and the value of lives saved and injuries prevented. The results of the study show that SAFETY CAMERAS are an effective means of reducing road traffic collisions and related deaths and injuries in Ireland and because of this they generate a iii significant benefit to Irish society of over 70 million each year- see the table below for more details.

6 Even when mmodelling with more pessimistic assumptions ( a decline in incident reductions, reductions in fine income etc.) the analysis still showed that the CAMERAS produced a substantial net benefit over their costs. Contrary to popular belief Irish SAFETY CAMERAS are not a cash cow for the State. The operational costs of running SAFETY CAMERAS in Ireland are more than double the fine income they generate. However, these SAFETY CAMERAS do save lives in a cost effective way. Thus, continued expansion of the SAFETY camera programme is a worthwhile objective. Summary of Cost Benefit Assessment of SAFETY CAMERAS in Ireland Benefits Accident Savings 80,070,3953 Fine REVENUE 6,905,600 (a) Total Benefits 86,975,995 Costs GoSafe Contract 16,000,000 Signage etc.

7 103,667 Planning 4,522 Enforcement 149,988 Publicity 339,728 (b) Total Costs 16,597,905 Net Benefits (a)-(b) 70,378,090 Benefit-Cost Ratio iv Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport for sponsoring me to undertake the MSc course of which this dissertation is but the culmination of two years hard work. In particular the understanding of my various colleagues over the past two years is something I have very much appreciated. Sincere gratitude must also go to all those who helped in terms of providing the information that allowed me to complete my research.

8 In particular various members of An Garda S och na were of great assistance in providing much of the data upon which my analysis is based. Sam Scriven from the Garda Research Unit deserves special praise. The excellent guidance and words of wisdom of my supervisor Dr. Mich al Collins were of great help throughout my research. His positive approach inspired confidence in me and his good natured and reassuring manner kept me calm and minimised the stress of the process. Finally, and most importantly of all, to my partner St phanie, her support on this and everything else in my life has been quite simply, immeasurable.

9 _____ Derek Rafferty. Dublin, July 2014. v Life SAVERS not REVENUE Raisers - SAFETY CAMERAS in Ireland: A Cost-Benefit Analysis TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Background and Context .. 1 road SAFETY in Ireland .. 1 Ireland s road SAFETY Performance in an international context .. 3 The Crucial Role of Speed .. 6 Speed- the 7 History of SAFETY camera Use in 9 SAFETY camera Policy Issues .. 11 Chapter 2 Research Aims and Methodological Approach .. 14 Study Objectives .. 14 Scope .. 14 Methodology .. 15 The Data .. 15 Approach to estimating road SAFETY Benefits .. 17 Data .. 17 Methodology- Before and After 17 Chapter 3 Literature Review.

10 21 SAFETY CAMERAS .. 21 Ireland .. 21 International .. 21 Systematic Reviews- Findings .. 25 Research since 2010 .. 27 Cost Benefit Analysis .. 29 Chapter 4- SAFETY CAMERAS - the Costs .. 31 Total Costs .. 31 Fixed Costs .. 32 Current Costs .. 33 Other non-quantifiable costs .. 33 Chapter 5 SAFETY CAMERAS - the Benefits .. 35 road SAFETY related benefits .. 35 Value of accident reductions .. 41 Value of fines and penalties .. 41 Wider benefits .. 44 Chapter 6 Cost Benefit Assessment .. 46 The CBA process .. 46 Estimation of overall costs and benefits .. 47 vi Sensitivity Analysis.