Load Forecast : ทิศทางการใชไฟฟ้า้ ในอนาคต

1 Load Forecast : 29 2560 . ( ) Session ISession II ( 2560) (Scenario)2 ( 2560)Session I3.

2 : . : ./ .. PDP ** . 4 ..PEA .. ( .) . ( .) . ( .)

3 5 6 ..1. (RES)End-UseEnd-Use-2. (SGS)EconometricEconometric-3. (MGS)EconometricEconometric4. (LGS) - , , , - - , , , , , , , , , - End-UseEconometricEnd-UseEconometric-End -UseEconometricEnd-UseEconometricEconome tric---Econometric-5.

4 (SPC) / End-UseEconometricEnd-UseEconometric--6. (NPO)EconometricEconometric-7. (AGP)-Econometric-8. (TEM) (STL)EconometricEconometricEconometricEc onometric-- ( .)(1) End Use Model . (2) (Econometric Model) Model Model DemandEGAT Direct+PEA+MEAD emand Demand (Captive Demand)

5 EEPBAUD emand EGAT Direct+PEA+MEAD emand Demand (Captive Demand)BASE 7 60616263646566676869 GDP(CVM) ( 25 ..60) 70717273747576777879 GDP(CVM) ( 25 ..60) GDP(CVM) .(25 .. 2560) GDP CVM - - 60-80 . - - / :1.

6 GDP 25 .. 60 . 12( 2560-2564)2. 2560-2579 .(11 .. 2560) 60616263646566676869 ( 11 .. 2560) 70717273747576777879 ( 11 .. 2560) 2560-2579 ( ) ( )9 Demand (EV) (EEC) ( )10 (EV) - EV EEP2015 2579 -Energy Load Profile ( )

7 - 3 2,46605001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0001:002: 003:004:005:006:007:008:009:0010:0011:00 12:0013:0014:0015:0016:0017:0018:0019:00 20:0021:0022:0023:000:00 Workday 2579 Holiday 2579 5,78301,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002560 2561256225632564256525662567256825692570 257125722573257425752576257725782579 ( )11 1,32402004006008001,0001,2001,4002564256 5256625672568256925702571257225732574257 52576257725782579 GWh ( )120204060801001201401601802564256525662 5672568256925702571257225732574257525762 57725782579MW163 (EEC)

8 ( ) 1 P25642 P25643 3P25664 3P25675 - P25656 --7 --8 (EV/AV)P9 , , P10 P11 P 12 -13 / -14 --15 --16 EECiP256217 Digital Park P2562 R&D2561 2,76505001,0001,5002,0002,5003.

9 0002561256225632564256525662567256825692 570257125722573257425752576257725782579 4040100200300400500256125622563256425652 5662567256825692570257125722573257425752 576257725782579 13 ( ) Demand (Captive Demand)Demand Independent Power Supply (IPS) -IPS:Independent Power Supply / 3 -IPS = SPP (Install Cap.)

10 +IPS>1MW + IPS<1MW-Captive Power = 14 ( ) (EEP) PDP 2015 EEP2015- Energy Intensity 30( 2579 2553) BASE15 ( )393,335 326,119 416,852 354,229 372,440 309,817 100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0 00400,000450,000255025512552255325542555 2556255725582559256025612562256325642565 2566256725682569257025712572257325742575 2576257725782579 PDP2015 (BAU)PDP2015(Base)Sep2017 (BAU)* Captive Power IPSSep2017 (Base)16 Sep2017 (Base)*Sep2017 (BAU)* Load Profile 2560 (Peak)