MONITORING the FUTURE

1 MONITORING . the FUTURE . NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS. ON DRUG USE. 1975-2016. 2016. Volume I. Secondary School Students Richard A. Miech Lloyd D. Johnston Patrick M. O'Malley Jerald G. Bachman John E. Schulenberg Megan E. Patrick Sponsored by The National Institute on Drug Abuse at The National Institutes of Health MONITORING THE FUTURE . NATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS ON DRUG USE, 1975 2016. Volume I. Secondary School Students by Richard A. Miech, Lloyd D. Johnston, Patrick M. O'Malley, Jerald G. Bachman, John E. Schulenberg, Megan E. Patrick, The University of Michigan Institute for social Research Sponsored by: The National Institute on Drug Abuse National Institutes of Health This publication was written by the principal investigators and staff of the MONITORING the FUTURE project at the Institute for social Research, the University of Michigan, under Research Grant No.

2 R01. DA 001411 from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Institute on Drug Abuse or the National Institutes of Health. Public Domain Notice All materials appearing in this volume are in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied, whether in print or in non-print media including derivatives, in any reasonable manner, without permission from the authors. If you plan to modify the material, please indicate that changes were made and contact MTF at for verification of accuracy. Citation of the source is appreciated, including at least the following: MONITORING the FUTURE , Institute for social Research, University of Michigan. Recommended Citation Miech, R. A., Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, P. M., Bachman, J.

3 G., Schulenberg, J. E., & Patrick, M. E. (2017). MONITORING the FUTURE national survey results on drug use, 1975 2016: Volume I, Secondary school students. Ann Arbor: Institute for social Research, The University of Michigan. Available at #monographs Institute for social Research The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Published June 2017. ABBREVIATED CONTENTS*. Click on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page. Detailed Contents .. iv List of Tables .. ix List of Figures .. xviii Chapter 1 Introduction ..1. Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration Across Five Populations ..10. Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures ..74. Chapter 4 Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use ..88. Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use ..155. Chapter 6 Initiation Rates and Trends in Initiation Rates ..315. Chapter 7 Degree and Duration of Drug Highs.

4 352. Chapter 8 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drug Chapter 9 The social Chapter 10 Long-Term Daily Marijuana Use; Nonprescription, Prescription, and Performance-Enhancing Chapter 11 Study Publications ..584. Appendix A Prevalence and Trend Estimates Adjusted for Absentees and Dropouts ..594. Appendix B Definition of Background and Demographic Subgroups ..605. Appendix C Estimation of Sampling Errors ..609. Appendix D Trends by Subgroup: Supplemental Tables for Secondary School Students ..639. Appendix E Trends in Specific Subclasses of Hallucinogens, Amphetamines, Tranquilizers, Narcotic Drugs other than Heroin, and Sedatives ..648. Appendix F Trends in Drug Use for Three Grades Combined ..666. *See next page for Detailed Contents. iii DETAILED CONTENTS. Click on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page. Chapter 1 Introduction.

5 1. Content Areas Covered .. 2. Drug Classes .. 2. Attitudes, Beliefs, and Early Experiences .. 3. Over-the-Counter Substances .. 4. Cumulative Lifetime Daily Marijuana Use .. 4. Trends in Use of Specific Alcoholic Beverages .. 4. Sources of Prescription Drugs .. 4. Synopses of Other MTF Publications .. 4. Appendixes .. 5. Purposes and Rationale for This Research .. 5. Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration Across Five Populations .. 10. Trends in Drug Use The Advent of Cohort 10. College Noncollege Differences in Illicit Drug Use .. 29. Male Female Differences in Substance Use .. 30. Trends in Alcohol Use .. 30. Male Female Differences in Alcohol Use .. 31. Trends in Cigarette Smoking and Vaping .. 31. Age- and Cohort-Related Differences in Cigarette Smoking .. 33. Male Female Differences in Cigarette 34. Vaping.

6 34. Racial/Ethnic Comparisons .. 35. Drug Use in 8th Grade .. 37. Summary and Conclusions .. 38. Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures .. 74. Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Surveys .. 74. The Population under Study .. 74. The Omission of 75. Sampling Procedures and Sample Weights .. 75. Questionnaire Administration .. 75. Questionnaire Format .. 76. Research Design and Procedures for the 8th- and 10th-Grade Surveys .. 76. Mode of Administration .. 77. Questionnaire Forms and Sample Proportions .. 77. Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Follow-up Surveys .. 78. Follow-Up Procedures .. 78. Follow-Up Questionnaire Format .. 79. Representativeness and Sample Accuracy .. 79. School Participation .. 79. iv DETAILED CONTENTS (continued). Click on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page. Student 81.

7 Sampling Accuracy of the Estimates .. 82. Panel Surveys .. 82. Validity of Measures of Self-Reported Drug Use .. 82. Consistency and Measurement of Trends .. 83. Chapter 4 Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use .. 88. Prevalence and Frequency of Drug Use in 2016: All Students .. 88. Prevalence of Lifetime, Annual, and 30-Day Use .. 88. Frequency of Lifetime, Annual, and 30-Day Use .. 96. Prevalence of Current Daily Use .. 97. Noncontinuation Rates .. 98. Prevalence Comparisons for Important Subgroups .. 99. Gender Differences .. 99. Differences Related to College Plans .. 101. Regional Differences .. 103. Differences Related to Population 104. Differences Related to Parental Education .. 105. Racial/Ethnic Differences .. 106. Interactions between Race/Ethnicity and Parental Education .. 109. Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use .. 155. Two Themes in Drug Trends from 1975 2016.

8 155. Trends in Prevalence of Use, 1975 156. Trends in Indices of Overall, Illicit Drug Use .. 156. Trends in Use of Specific Drugs .. 157. Summary .. 174. Trends in Noncontinuation Rates: 12th Graders .. 175. Implications for Prevention .. 178. Trend Comparisons among Subgroups .. 178. Trend Differences by Gender .. 178. Trend Differences by College Plans .. 185. Trend Differences by Region of the Country .. 191. Trend Differences by Population Density .. 196. Trend Differences by Socioeconomic Status .. 201. Racial/Ethnic Differences in Trends .. 207. Chapter 6 Initiation Rates and Trends in Initiation Rates .. 315. Incidence of Use by Grade Level .. 316. Trends in Lifetime Prevalence at Earlier Grade Levels .. 318. Drugs No Longer Tracked for Initiation Due to Low Levels of Use .. 325. v DETAILED CONTENTS (continued). Click on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page.

9 Chapter 7 Degree and Duration of Drug 352. Degree and Duration of Highs among 12th Graders in 2016 .. 352. Trends in Degree and Duration of Drug Highs .. 354. Chapter 8 Attitudes and Beliefs about Drug Use .. 377. Perceived Harmfulness of Drug Use .. 378. Beliefs about Harmfulness among 12th Graders .. 378. Risk from Regular Use .. 378. Risk from Experimental Use .. 378. 8th and 10th Graders' Beliefs about Harmfulness .. 379. Trends in Perceived Harmfulness of Drug Use .. 381. Trends in Perceived Harmfulness among 12th Graders .. 381. Trends in Perceived Harmfulness among 8th and 10th Graders .. 390. Personal Disapproval of Drug Use .. 393. Extent of Disapproval among 12th 393. Extent of Disapproval among 8th and 10th Graders .. 394. Trends in Disapproval of Drug Use .. 395. Trends in Disapproval among 12th Graders .. 395. Trends in Disapproval among 8th and 10th Graders.

10 398. Attitudes Regarding the Legality of Drug 400. Attitudes about Legality of Drug Use among 12th Graders .. 400. Trends in Attitudes about Legality of Drug Use among 12th Graders .. 401. The Legal Status of Marijuana .. 402. Attitudes and Predicted Responses to Legalization of Marijuana .. 402. Trends in Attitudes and Predicted Responses to Legalization of Marijuana .. 403. Chapter 9 The social Context .. 454. Perceived Attitudes of Friends: 12th Graders .. 454. Perceptions of Friends' Attitudes .. 454. A Comparison of the Attitudes of Parents, Peers, and 12th Graders .. 455. Trends in Perceptions of Friends' Attitudes .. 456. Methodological Implications .. 458. Friends' Use of Drugs .. 458. Exposure to Drug Use by Friends and Others: 12th 459. Friends' Use of Drugs: 8th and 10th Graders, 2016 .. 460. Trends in Exposure to Drug Use and Friends' Use of Drugs.