MONITORING the FUTURE

1 MONITORING FUTURENATIONAL SURVEY RESULTS ON DRUG USE1975-20162016 Volume IItheSponsored by The national institute on Drug Abuse at The national Institutes of HealthCollege Students & Adults Ages 19 55 John E. SchulenbergLloyd D. Johnston Patrick M. O Malley Jerald G. Bachman Richard A. MiechMegan E. PatrickMONITORING THE FUTURE national SURVEY RESULTS ON DRUG USE, 1975 2016 Volume IICollege Students and Adults Ages 19-55 by John E. Schulenberg, Lloyd D. Johnston, Patrick M. O Malley, Jerald G. Bachman, Richard A. Miech, Megan E. Patrick, The University of Michigan institute for Social Research Sponsored by: The national institute on Drug Abuse national Institutes of Health This publication was written by the principal investigators and staff of the MONITORING the FUTURE project at the institute for Social Research, the University of Michigan, under Research Grant No.

2 R01 DA 001411 and R01 DA 016575 from theNational institute on Drug Abuse. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the national institute on Drug Abuse or the national Institutes of Health. Public Domain Notice All materials appearing in this volume are in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied, whether in print or in non-print media including derivatives, in any reasonable manner, without permission from the authors. If you plan to modify the material, please indicate that changes were made and contact MTF at for verification of accuracy.

3 Citation of the source is appreciated, including at least the following: MONITORING the FUTURE , institute for Social Research, University of Michigan. Recommended Citation Schulenberg, J. E., Johnston, L. D., O Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., Miech, R. A. & Patrick, M. E. (2017). MONITORING the FUTURE national survey results on drug use, 1975 2016: Volume II, College students and adults ages 19 55. Ann Arbor: institute for Social Research, The University of Michigan. Available at #monographs institute for Social Research The University of Michigan Ann Arbor, Michigan Published July 2017 ABBREVIATED CONTENTS*Click on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page.

4 Detailed Contents .. iv List of Tables .. vii List of Figures ..x Chapter 1 Introduction ..1 Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration Across Five Populations ..6 Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures ..70 Chapter 4 Prevalence of Drug Use in Early, Middle, and Later Adulthood ..85 Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood ..140 Chapter 6 Attitudes and Beliefs About Drugs Among Young Adults ..240 Chapter 7 The Social Context ..298 Chapter 8 Prevalence of Drug Use Among College Students and Their Noncollege Peers ..370 Chapter 9 Trends in Drug Use Among College Students and Noncollege Peers ..382 Chapter 10 Study Publications.

5 436 *See next page for Detailed CONTENTSC lick on any item below (in blue) to go directly to that page. Chapter 1 Surveys of Young Adults and Adults Ages 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55 ..2 Surveys of College Students and Noncollege Peers ..3 General Purposes of the Research ..4 Chapter 2 Key Findings: An Overview and Integration Across Five Trends in Drug Use The Advent of Cohort Effects ..6 College/Noncollege Differences in Illicit Drug Use ..25 Male Female Differences in Illicit Drug Use ..26 Trends in Alcohol Use ..26 Male Female Differences in Alcohol Use ..27 Trends in Cigarette Smoking and Vaping ..27 Age- and Cohort-Related Differences in Cigarette Smoking.

6 29 Male Female Differences in Cigarette Smoking ..30 Vaping ..30 Racial/Ethnic Comparisons ..31 Drug Use in 8th Grade ..33 Summary and Conclusions ..34 Chapter 3 Study Design and Procedures ..70 Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Surveys ..70 The Population under The Omission of Dropouts ..71 Sampling Procedures and Sample Weights ..71 Questionnaire Administration ..71 Questionnaire Research Design and Procedures for the 8th- and 10th-Grade Surveys ..72 Mode of Administration ..73 Questionnaire Forms and Sample Proportions ..73 Research Design and Procedures for the 12th-Grade Follow-up Surveys ..74 Follow-Up Procedures ..74 Follow-Up Questionnaire Format.

7 75 Representativeness and Sample Accuracy ..75 School Participation ..75 Student Participation ..77 Sampling Accuracy of the Estimates ..78 Panel Surveys ..78 Validity of Measures of Self-Reported Drug Consistency and Measurement of Trends ..79 ivDETAILED CONTENTS (continued)Chapter 4 Prevalence of Drug Use in Early, Middle, and Later Adulthood ..85 Replicability of The Importance of Adjusted Lifetime Prevalence Estimates ..87 Prevalence of Drug Use Across Age Groups ..88 Prevalence Comparisons for Subgroups of Young Adults ..98 Gender Differences ..98 Regional Differences ..99 Population Density Differences ..101 Chapter 5 Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Recent Trends in Drug Use among Young Adults Ages 19-28.

8 141 Longer-Term Trends in Early and Middle Adulthood ..143 Trends for Important Subgroups of Young Adults ..155 Gender Differences in Trends ..155 Regional Differences in Trends ..163 Population Density Differences in Trends ..169 Chapter 6 Attitudes and Beliefs About Drugs Among Young Adults ..240 Perceived Harmfulness of Drugs ..240 Personal Disapproval of Drug Use ..248 Cohort Differences and Their Implications for Prevention and Theory ..252 Chapter 7 The Social Peer Norms among Young Adults (Ages 18-30) ..299 Perceptions of Close Friends Attitudes (Ages 18 to 30) ..299 Trends in Peer Norms (Ages 18 to 30) ..300 Adults Exposure to Drug Use Through Friends and Others (Ages 18 to 55).

9 303 Exposure to Drug Use (Ages 18 to 55) ..303 Trends in Exposure to Drug Use (Ages 18 to 55) ..306 Perceived Availability of Drugs among Adults (Ages 18 to 55) ..310 Perceived Availability ..310 Trends in Perceived Availability ..311 Chapter 8 Prevalence of Drug Use Among College Students and Their Noncollege Peers ..370 Definition of College Prevalence of Drug Use among College Students versus Their Noncollege Peers ..371 Gender Differences in Prevalence of Use among College Students and Their Noncollege Peers ..373 vDETAILED CONTENTS (continued)Chapter 9 Trends in Drug Use Among College Students and Their Noncollege Peers ..382 Trends in Prevalence, 1980-2016: College Students versus Those Not Enrolled in College and 12th Graders.

10 383 Gender Differences in Trends among College Students ..395 Chapter 10 Study Publications ..436 E- cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: Results from a 1-year follow up of a national sample of 12th grade students ..436 E- cigarette use an subsequent cigarette smoking among adolescents and young adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis ..436 The influence of college attendance on risk for marijuana initiation in the United States: 1977-2015 ..437 Discontinuous patterns of cigarette smoking from age 18 to 50 in the U. S.: A repeated-measures latent class analysis ..437 Longitudinal patterns of marijuana use across ages 18 50 in a national sample: A descriptive examination of predictors and health correlates of repeated measures latent class membership.