Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast - SpaceWorks …

1 2017 Nano/MicrosatelliteMarket ForecastCopyright 2017, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)22017 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 20172017 Nano/Microsatellite Market ForecastDeveloped by:Mr. Bill DoncasterSenior Systems | + Caleb WilliamsSpace Systems | + Jordan ShulmanChief Financial | + by: SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)Atlanta, GA32017 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 SpaceWorks 2016projectionestimated210nano/microsate llitesacrossallsectorswouldlaunchgloball yin2016;however,only101 + SpaceWorks 2017forecastreflectsthattechnicalchallen gesandlimitedlaunchvehicleavailabilityco nstrainnear-termgrowth, ,butthisyear sSpaceWorksForecastpredictsonly10% VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 SpaceWorks -developed Market assessments deliver valuable industry knowledge to our customers, enabling organizations to make informed future investment decisionsSpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment Overview Fornearly10years,SpaceWorkshasactivelymo nitoredglobalsatelliteactivitiesinallmas sclasses( ,000-kg)andhasprovidedcustomizedmarketas sessmentsforcommercialandgovernmentcusto mers Since2011,asaservicetothesmallsatellitec ommunity,SpaceWorkshaspublishedacomplime ntarymarketassessmentcoveringtheNano/Mic rosatellitesegment SpaceWorks proprietarysatelliteLaunchDemandDatabase (LDDB),acatalogueofover10,000historicala ndfuturemissions,containingbothpublicand non-publicsatelliteprograms,servesasthed atasourceforallassessments52017 VERSION.

2 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology Many nanosatellites are based on the CubeSat standard Developed in by California Polytechnic State University and Stanford University in 1999 Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm units Each unit, or U , usually has a volume of exactly one liter Each U has a mass close to 1 kg and not to exceed kg ( a 3U CubeSat has mass between 3 and 4 kg) This report bounds the upper range of interest in microsatellites at 50 kg given the relatively large amount of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg rangeSatellite ClassMassRangeFemtosatellite10 100 gPicosatellite< 1 kgNanosatellite1 10 kgForecast Scope1 50 kgMicrosatellite10 100 kgSmall Satellite100 500 kgTechnical University of Berlin sBeeSat4 CubeSat62017 VERSION.

3 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Planet s Flock-2b Dove SatellitesCredit: Spaceflight1012016 Highlights Launchdelayscontinuedtoreducemarketpoten tialandaddedtoagrowingbacklogofsatellite sawaitinglaunch Over100smallsatelliteswereimpactedby2016 launchdelays SpaceX sFalcon9familydeliveredzerosmallsatellit esin2016 FirstflightofSHERPA,alargepayloadadapter forsmallsatellites,wasfurtherdelayed,cau singseveralcustomerstoseekalternativelau ncharrangements CommercialEarthobservationandremotesensi ngconstellations( ,PlanetandSpire)accountedfornearlyhalfof nano/microsatelliteslaunchedin2016 Chinawasresponsibleforoperating13%ofalln ano/microsatelliteslaunchedin2016,second onlytotheUnitedStates(63%)Spaceflight Industries SHERPAC redit: Spaceflight Industries72017 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC.

4 , COPYRIGHT 20172016 Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated ExamplesCommunicationsITF 2 kgLaunched:12/2016 TechnologyCELTEE 1 kgLaunched:11/2016 Earth ObservationNuSat1 (Aleph-1)Mass:37 kgLaunched:5/2016 ScientificRAVANMass:5 kgLaunched:11/2016 Remote SensingLemur-2 Mass:5 kgLaunched:5/2016 Credit: SatellogicCredit: 3 kgLaunched:12/2016 Credit: JAXAC redit: SpireCredit: Earth Observation PortalCredit: VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 SpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment MethodologyLaunch Demand DBProbabilistic Forecast ModelExpert JudgmentSpaceWorks Forecast The Forecast is developed based on data from the SpaceWorks satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB) SpaceWorks Probabilistic Forecast Model (PFM) generates best case estimates for future spacecraft missions based on historical trends, announced projects, and expected Market segment growth PFM produces forecasted Market data such as satellite launch count, mass, orbital destination, mission type, sector, operating country, and more PFM results are interpreted and refined using expert knowledge, historical indicators, and value judgment for future missions The SpaceWorksNano/ microsatellite Forecastrepresents the most likely outcome based on current trends and launch capacity92017 VERSION.

5 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate nearly 2,400 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2017 through 2023253277299320332375418460050100150200 2503003504004505002010201120122013201420 1520162017201820192020202120222023 Number of Satellites(1-50 kg)Calendar YearFull Market PotentialSpaceWorks ForecastHistorical Launches2017 Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Forecast (1 -50 kg)The 2017 Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, Market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs. The 2017 SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely Market * Please see End Notes 1,2, 3, 4, and VERSION.

6 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Even with large commercial sector growth, 2017 is expected to be a record year for academic satellites as the industry works its way through the current launch backlog 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Histori cal (2009 - 2016) SpaceWorks Forecast (2017 - 2019)Percentage of SatellitesAcademicGovernmentCommercialNa no/ microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 50 kg)The commercial sector will account for the majority of future nano/microsatellites* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 50 kg)TechnologyCommunicationsHistorical (2009 2016) SpaceWorks Forecast (2017 -2019)* Please see End Notes 2, 5, and form factors continue to increase, small communication satellites are becoming more viable, encompassing a small, but consistent portion of the marketEarth observation and remote sensing are expected to be the dominant use for nano/microsatellites in the future6%43%42%9%7%64%14%15%Communication sTechnologyEarth Observation/Remote Sensing ScientificScientificEarth Observation/ Remote Sensing122017 VERSION.

7 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 NanosatelliteSize Trends (1 -10 kg)* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and 3U form factor remains dominant in the Market place as a result of its use by large Earth observation and remote sensing constellationsOverall growth is increasing in larger platforms (both CubeSatsover 3U and non-CubeSatsover 10kg) due to demand for additional payload capacity1 3 kg3 6 kg0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%20092 010201120122013201420152016201720182019 Calendar Year7 10 kg132017 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017020406080100120140160200020012002200 3200420052006200720082009201020112012201 3201420152016 Number of SatellitesCalendar YearHistorical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 -2016 (1 -50 kg)11 50 kg1 10 kgThe nanosatellite (1-10 kg) Market is still largely favored by operators, but the 11 50 kg and higher range is increasing in popularity* Please see End Notes 1 and saw substantial growth in the 11 50 kg segment142017 VERSION.

8 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 20170510152025303540 Long March 11 Long March 4H-2 AAntaresSoyuzLong March 2 PegasusH-2 BPSLVA tlas VNo. of SatellitesNo. of Launches2016 Nano/Microsatellites Rides to SpaceThe number of vehicles offering rideshares for nano/microsatellites is increasing, yet there is still a lack of dedicated commercial rideshare providers * Please see End Notes 1 and VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 20172017 Case Study #1: Small Satellite Launch Vehicles Several dedicated small satellite launchers are expected to fly for the first time in 2017, including Rocket Lab s Electron and Virgin Galactic s LauncherOne The dedicated launch vehicle landscape continues to shift, with several new entrants and notable withdraws in 2016 Non-US countries are beginning to invest in rideshare services, some scheduled to begin operations as early as 2017 (China & Spain)If successful, Rocket Lab s Electron and Spaceflight s SHERPA have the potential to dramatically increase the number of small satellites launched in 20171.

9 SSO payload normalized from available data if necessary2. Estimated3. For 3U CubeSat4. Commercial ProviderLEO1 Payload (kg)Stated IOC DateTarget LaunchPriceConfigurationSpaceflight Launch Services52013$59K/kg3 Rideshare brokerfor numerous launch vehiclesNanoracks52013 $60K/kg4 ISS deploymentwith resupply mission launch rideshareLaunch System500km SSO Payload (kg)1 Stated IOC DateTarget LaunchPriceConfigurationElectron1502017$ 33K/kgGround-launchedtwo-stage rocketLauncherOne3002017$33K/kgAir-launc hed expendable rocketKuaizhou1A2502017$57K/kg2 Ground-launched four stage rocketVector-R282018$54K/kgGround-launch ed two-stage rocket, with optional electric third stageLandSpace-14002018$20K/kgGround-lau nched four-stage rocketGOLauncher2442019$57K/kgAir launched with solid and liquidIntrepid-13762019$14K/kgGround-lau nched, two stage, hybrid rocketArion 29320212$38K/kgGround-launched, three stage, liquid rocket162017 VERSION.

10 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 Over 80% of nano/microsatellites launched in the next 3 years are expected to launch to a sun-synchronous or polar orbit, as compared to only 39% in the previous 3 year periodISS orbit has been historically favored by nano/microsatellites due to convenience; as dedicated launchers emerge, ISS deployments are expected to decrease significantly61%34%5%15%83%2%2017 Case Study #2: Nano/Microsatellite Orbit DestinationsSSO/PolarHistorical (2014 2016) SpaceWorks Forecast (2017 -2019)* Please see End Notes 2, 5, and VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASESPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2017 SpaceWorks Forecast projects 2017 will be a record year for Nano/Microsatellite launches, with 182 satellites expected to launch, representing an 80% increase from 2016 Projections for the Full Market Potential indicate as many as 2,400 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2017 through 2023 Commercial Earth observation and remote sensing constellations continue to make up a substantial portion of the Market , encompassing 63% of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2016.