Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and …

1 Daniel Fabricant, CEO & Exec. Director NIA-West Spring Conference May 25, 2016 Pantsuits and combovers : Challenges and opportunities for the most volatile political cycle EVER!!!! Politics, politics everywhere Puerto Rico????? Yes, the same place that brought you the Pina Colada Debt problems Next Industry Challenge brought to you PROMSEA 114th Congress House of Representatives Majority Party: Republican (246) Minority Party: Democrat (188) Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-California) Senate Majority Party: Republican (54) Minority Party: Democrat (46) President Pro Tempore The Honorable Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada) Next Congress and a new Admin House of Representatives R majority but not as big as it is now Senate Big 4 states WI, PA, NH, IL NV Flip HELP likely Patty Murray (D-WA) Elevation of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Donald Trump.

2 Presumptive GOP Nominee Darling of the anti-establishment grassroots Currently the leader in the primaries and the likely Republican nominee Concerns about his inexperience in politics and general lack of tact Doesn t connect with most moderate voters, women, or minorities. National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $13,857,206 PAC: $0 Party: $58 Candidate: $43,804,727 Total Disbursements: $55,080,299 Cash On Hand: $2,408,642 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Donald J. Trump (R) National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $206,025,230 PAC: $5,150 Party: $0 Candidate: $0 Total Disbursements: $201,777,405 Cash On Hand: $5,796,719 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Bernie Sanders (D) National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $709,256,820 PAC: $2,281,842 Party: $1,159 Candidate: $45,785,688 Total Disbursements: $729,297,680 Cash On Hand: $56,812,607 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 All 2016 Presidential Candidates What the hell is a PAC?

3 Video Hillary Clinton: $33,410,943 Bernie Sanders: $16,435,573 Donald J. Trump: $385,929 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 California 2016 Presidential Candidate Contributions Thinning The Herd Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton Current front runner for the Democratic primary Massive war-chest and organization Questions about corruption Are we tired of hearing about those emails? National Total Contributions: $ million Individual: $185,564,858 PAC: $1,181,170 Party: $1,000 Candidate: $796,562 Total Disbursements: $174,101,369 Cash On Hand: $30,156,932 *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 Hillary Clinton (D) Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont) Darling of young voters Catching up to Hillary in Democratic Primary Ranking Member of Senate Budget Committee Self described Democratic Socialist, most liberal candidate in the race The State of the 2016 Election s GOP & Democratic Fields Trump v.

4 Clinton Recent Polling Data Trump v. Clinton Recent Polling Data Democrats need a net of five seats to win control of the senate If there s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie States with Senate Races in 2016 Republican-held seat state won by Romney in 2012 Democratic-held seat Mont. Va. W .Va. Ga. Idaho Ill. Iowa Kan. K y . La. Maine Colo. Del. Mass. Mich. Minn. Miss. T exas W yo. Tenn. Okla. Ore. Ark. Alaska Hawaii Ala. Mo. Nev. Vt. Utah Fla. Ind. Ohio Md. N. Y. W is. Conn. Ariz. Pa. Wash. Calif. Neb. Republican-held seat state won by Obama in 2012 Florida: Aug. 30 Primaries for OPEN SEAT Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio, who isn t running Primaries: Aug. 30 Democrats: Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy Republicans: Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, developer Carlos Beruff, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less than 1 percentage point in the 2012 presidential election the closest margin in the nation.

5 Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Lopez-Cantera from Florida website; all others from Twitter Grayson Murphy DeSantis Jolly Lopez-Cantera Wilcox Beruff Illinois: Kirk-Duckworth Battle this Fall Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk, vying for a second term (left) Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth,(right) Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a Democratic state and the occupant of the Senate seat Obama once held. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Lean Democratic (changed May 5 from Toss Up/Tilt Democrat ) Sabato s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website Nevada: Who Replaces Top Senate Democrat? Incumbent: Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who is retiring June 14 primaries may affirm heavy favorites: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state attorney general backed by Reid (left) Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency room doctor and veteran (right) Why watch: This is the Republicans best opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat.

6 Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Masto from state attorney general website New Hampshire: Ayotte-Hassan Matchup Ahead Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte (left) Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan (right) Primaries: Sept. 13 Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its voting patterns come close to mirroring the national popular vote in that election. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Ayotte ; Hassan from governor s website Ohio: Portman and Strickland to Face Off Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (left) Challenger: Former Governor Ted Strickland (right) Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up for grabs.

7 Portman and Strickland both are familiar faces to the electorate. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website Pennsylvania: Toomey-McGinty Race Set Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (left) Challenger: Katie McGinty (right), former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, who won April 26 primary; she was backed by White House and Democratic campaign arm and defeated former Representative Joe Sestak Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state that votes Democratic for president. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican Sabato s Crystal Ball Toss-up Photo credits: Toomey from Senate website; McGinty from Twitter account Wisconsin: Johnson-Feingold Rematch Likely Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson, seeking a second term (left) Challenger: Former Senator Russ Feingold (right) Primaries on Aug.

8 9 Why watch: The last time a Wisconsin Republican won a Senate race in a presidential election year was 1980, raising questions about what the presidential turnout will mean for Johnson s re-election chances. Race ratings Cook Political Report Toss-up Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up Sabato s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic Photo credits: Johnson from Senate website; Feingold from campaign website biography House Races to Watch in 2016 Governors Races in 2016 Source: Democratic incumbent running Republican incumbent running Mont. Neb. Va. Ga. Idaho Ill. Iowa Kan. K y . La. Maine Colo. Del. Mass. Mich. Minn. Miss. T exas W yo. T enn. Okla. Ore. Ark. Alaska Hawaii Ala. Mo. Ne v . Vt. Utah Fla. Ind. Ohio Md. N. Y . W is. Conn. Ariz. Pa. Wash. Calif. Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information Democratic incumbent not running Republican incumbent not running State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date Presidential vote 2012 Delaware Jack Markell (D) term-limited John Carney Colin Bonini Lacey Lafferty Sept.

9 13 Obama 59% Romney 40% Indiana Mike Pence (R), seeking re-election John Gregg Pence May 3 Romney 54% Obama 44% Missouri Jay Nixon (D), term-limited Chris Koster John Brunner Eric Greitens Catherine Hanaway Peter Kinder Aug. 2 Romney 54% Obama 44% Montana Steve Bullock (D), seeking re-election Bullock Greg Gianforte June 7 Romney 55% Obama 42% New Hampshire Maggie Hassan (D), running for Senate Mark Connolly Colin Van Ostern Steve Marchand Frank Edelblut Ted Gatsas Chris Sununu Jeanie Forrester Sept. 13 Obama 52% Romney 46% North Carolina Pat McCrory (R), seeking re-election Roy Cooper McCrory March 15 Romney 50% Obama 48% Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards States With Governors Elections in 2016 States With Governors Elections in 2016 State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date Presidential vote 2012 North Dakota Jack Dalrymple (R), retiring Marvin Nelson Paul Sorum Wayne Stenehjem Doug Burgum June 14 Romney 58% Obama 39% Oregon Kate Brown (D), seeking election* Brown Julian Bell Bud Pierce Bob Niemeyer May 17 Obama 54% Romney 42% Utah Gary Herbert (R), seeking re-election Vaughn R.

10 Cook Mike Weinholtz Herbert Jonathan Johnson Aug. 9 Romney 73% Obama 25% Vermont Peter Shumlin (D), retiring Matt Dunne Sue Minter H. Brooke Paige Bruce Lisman Phil Scott Aug. 9 Obama 67% Romney 31% Washington Jay Inslee (D), seeking re-election Inslee Bill Bryant Aug. 2 Obama 56% Romney 41% West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin (D), retiring Booth Goodwin Jim Justice Jeff Kessler Bill Cole May 10 Romney 62% Obama 36% * Kate Brown became governor in 2015 after John Kitzhaber resigned. Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards Total Receipts: $69,448,146 Total Disbursements: $36,834,379 Democrat: $42,703,269 Republican: $26,674,287 *California has 53 Congressional Districts *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 California 2016 House Races Total Receipts: $14,156,030 Total Disbursements: $6,621,988 Democrat: $13,055,924 Republican: $1,044,785 *Senator Barbara Boxer (D) is retiring *Contributions Through 4/30/2016 California 2016 Senate Race State Assembly Total Receipts: $32,123,847 State Senate Total Receipts: $18,444,848 *California has 80 State Assembly Districts *California has 40 State Senate Districts California 2016 State Leg.