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PHILIPPINE Climate Change

2 0 16 IN PARTNERSHIP. WITH. PHILIPPINE . Climate Change ASSESSMENT. WORKING GROUP 1. The Physical Science Basis 1. 2 016 P H I L I P P I N E. Climate Change ASSESSMENT. WORKING GROUP 1. The Physical Science Basis Coordinating Author: Jose Ramon T. Villarin, SJ. Contributing Authors: John Leo C. Algo, Thelma A. Cinco, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Rosalina G. de Guzman, Flaviana D. Hilario, Gemma Teresa T. Narisma, Andrea Monica D. Ortiz, Fernando P. Siringan, Lourdes V. Tibig Technical Coordinators: Rodel D. Lasco Perlyn M. Pulhin Technical and Logistical Support: Rafaela Jane P.

8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10. iv 2.6 Global Climate Projections 2.6.1 Temperature 2.6.2 Atmosphere: Water Cycle ... 3.8 References CHAPTER 4. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN PHILIPPINE CLIMATE ... aiming to creatively educate and empower the pub-lic, especially the youth, about climate change in collaboration with other organizations. ...

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Transcription of PHILIPPINE Climate Change

1 2 0 16 IN PARTNERSHIP. WITH. PHILIPPINE . Climate Change ASSESSMENT. WORKING GROUP 1. The Physical Science Basis 1. 2 016 P H I L I P P I N E. Climate Change ASSESSMENT. WORKING GROUP 1. The Physical Science Basis Coordinating Author: Jose Ramon T. Villarin, SJ. Contributing Authors: John Leo C. Algo, Thelma A. Cinco, Faye Abigail T. Cruz, Rosalina G. de Guzman, Flaviana D. Hilario, Gemma Teresa T. Narisma, Andrea Monica D. Ortiz, Fernando P. Siringan, Lourdes V. Tibig Technical Coordinators: Rodel D. Lasco Perlyn M. Pulhin Technical and Logistical Support: Rafaela Jane P.

2 Delfino and Sandee G. Recabar This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder provid- ed acknowledgement of the source is made. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation, Inc. (Oscar M. Lopez Center) would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commer- cial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oscar M.

3 Lopez Center and Climate Change Commission. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Oscar M. Lopez Center and Climate Change Commission. The designation employed and the presentation of the materials herein, do not imply the ex- pression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the publisher. SUGGESTED CITATION: Villarin, J. T., Algo, J. L., Cinco, T. A., Cruz, F. T., de Guzman, R. G., Hilario, F. D., Narisma, G. T., Ortiz, A. M., Siringan, F. P.

4 , Tibig, L. V. (2016). 2016 PHILIPPINE Climate Change As- sessment (PhilCCA): The Physical Science Basis. The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation Inc. and Climate Change Commission. ISSN: 2508-089X. Language: English Copyright 2016 by The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation Inc. 1st Edition PUBLISHED BY: The Oscar M. Lopez Center for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Foundation Inc. 36th Flr.

5 One Corporate Center Bldg. Julia Vargas corner, Meralco Avenue, Ortigas Pasig City 1605 Philippines Tel: +63-2-755-2332 loc. 2276. Email: Website: Layout and cover by: Jan Daniel Belmonte and John Rey Espinueva Please send feedback and suggestions to: ii Table of Contents Table of Contents iii About the Authors vii List of Tables ix List of Figures x Foreword xii Executive Summary xiii Acknowledgment xiv Definition of Terms xv chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 1. chapter 2. GLOBAL CHANGES IN Climate 3. chapter Summary 4. Introduction 5.

6 Observations of Changes in the Global Climate 6. Changes in Temperature 6. Surface temperatures 6. Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures 7. Ocean temperatures 7. Changes in Energy Budget and Heat Content 7. Changes in Circulation and Modes of Variability 8. North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, El Ni o Southern 8. Oscillation Ocean circulation 8. Changes in the Water Cycle 8. Introduction to the water cycle 8. Observations of water cycle Change in the atmosphere 8. Ocean and surface fluxes 9. Changes in Sea Level 10.

7 Changes in Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 10. iii Global Climate Projections 10. Temperature 11. Atmosphere: Water Cycle 12. Ocean 13. Sea Level 13. Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles 13. Regional (Asian/Southeast Asian) Climate Projections 14. References 15. chapter 3. THE PHILIPPINE Climate 18. chapter Summary 19. Introduction 20. Seasonal Characteristics 20. Temperature 20. Rainfall 20. Monsoons 22. Tropical Cyclones 23. Large-Scale Oscillations 23. El Ni o Southern Oscillation 23. Impact of ENSO on rainfall 24.

8 Impact of ENSO on tropical cyclones 25. Pacific Decadal Oscillation 25. Madden-Julian Oscillation 26. Directions for Future Studies 26. References 26. chapter 4. HISTORICAL CHANGES IN PHILIPPINE Climate 29. chapter Summary 30. Temperature 31. Trends and changes in temperature 31. Extreme daily temperature indices (linear trends of extreme values hot days, warm 32. nights, and cool days and cold nights). iv Rainfall 34. Trends and changes in rainfall 34. Floods and drought 35. Climate Extremes (Extreme Rainfall Indices) 38.

9 Extreme monsoon performance 40. Tropical Cyclones 40. Trends and Changes in Tropical Cyclone Frequency, Intensity, and Trajectory 41. Wind Patterns 45. Trends and Changes in Winds 45. Directions for Future Studies 45. References 46. chapter 5. OBSERVED CHANGES IN OCEAN Climate 49. AND SEA LEVEL IN THE PHILIPPINES. chapter Summary 50. Sea Surface Temperature 50. Paleo-Sea Surface Temperature 52. Sea Level 54. Paleo Sea Level 57. Directions for Future Studies 57. References 58. chapter 6. DRIVERS OF LOCAL CHANGES IN Climate 61.

10 chapter Summary 62. Introduction 62. Aerosols and Climate 62. Biomass Burning 63. Urban Air Pollution 63. Terrestrial Ecosystems and Climate 63. Land Use/Land Cover Change 63. Urbanization 64. Urban Heat Island Effect 65. v Feedbacks of LULCC and GHGs 65. Directions for Future Studies 66. References 66. chapter 7. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN Climate 70. chapter Summary 71. Introduction 72. Development of Projections 72. Climate Models 73. Downscaling 73. Model Evaluation and Dealing with Uncertainties 74. Regional Climate Projections 74.


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