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Power Generation Technology Data for Integrated …

Power Generation Technology data for Integrated resource Plan of South Africa EPRI Project Manager G. Ramachandran ELECTRIC Power RESEARCH INSTITUTE 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304-1338 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303-0813 USA Power Generation Technology data for Integrated resource Plan of South Africa EPRI Member Specific Final Report, July 2010 Project Manager M. Barry System Operations and Planning DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES THIS DOCUMENT WAS PREPARED BY THE ORGANIZATION(S) NAMED BELOW AS AN ACCOUNT OF WORK SPONSORED OR COSPONSORED BY THE ELECTRIC Power RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC. (EPRI). NEITHER EPRI, ANY MEMBER OF EPRI, ANY COSPONSOR, THE ORGANIZATION(S) BELOW, NOR ANY PERSON ACTING ON BEHALF OF ANY OF THEM: (A) MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, (I) WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR (II) THAT SUCH USE DOES NOT INFRINGE ON OR INTERFERE WITH PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS, INCLUDING ANY PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OR (III) THAT THIS DOCUMENT IS SUITABLE TO ANY PARTICULAR USER'S CIRCUMSTANCE; OR (B)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Department of Energy, South Africa is in the process of preparing an integrated resource plan (IRP). The DOE South Africa has stipulated that the data included in the IRP must be

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1 Power Generation Technology data for Integrated resource Plan of South Africa EPRI Project Manager G. Ramachandran ELECTRIC Power RESEARCH INSTITUTE 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, California 94304-1338 PO Box 10412, Palo Alto, California 94303-0813 USA Power Generation Technology data for Integrated resource Plan of South Africa EPRI Member Specific Final Report, July 2010 Project Manager M. Barry System Operations and Planning DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTIES AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES THIS DOCUMENT WAS PREPARED BY THE ORGANIZATION(S) NAMED BELOW AS AN ACCOUNT OF WORK SPONSORED OR COSPONSORED BY THE ELECTRIC Power RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INC. (EPRI). NEITHER EPRI, ANY MEMBER OF EPRI, ANY COSPONSOR, THE ORGANIZATION(S) BELOW, NOR ANY PERSON ACTING ON BEHALF OF ANY OF THEM: (A) MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WHATSOEVER, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, (I) WITH RESPECT TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT, INCLUDING MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, OR (II) THAT SUCH USE DOES NOT INFRINGE ON OR INTERFERE WITH PRIVATELY OWNED RIGHTS, INCLUDING ANY PARTY'S INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, OR (III) THAT THIS DOCUMENT IS SUITABLE TO ANY PARTICULAR USER'S CIRCUMSTANCE.

2 OR (B) ASSUMES RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING ANY CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, EVEN IF EPRI OR ANY EPRI REPRESENTATIVE HAS BEEN ADVISED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES) RESULTING FROM YOUR SELECTION OR USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ANY INFORMATION, APPARATUS, METHOD, PROCESS, OR SIMILAR ITEM DISCLOSED IN THIS DOCUMENT. ORGANIZATION(S) THAT PREPARED THIS DOCUMENT EPRI NOTE For further information about EPRI, call the EPRI Customer Assistance Center at or e-mail Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, and THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY are registered service marks of the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Copyright 2010 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. CITATIONS This report was prepared by Electric Power Research Institute 3420 Hillview Ave Palo Alto, CA 94304 Principal Investigators R.

3 Bedilion G. Booras T. Coleman R. Entriken J. Hamel C. McGowin J. Platt G. Ramachandran This report describes research sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). This publication is a corporate document that should be cited in the literature in the following manner: Power Generation Technology data for Integrated resource Plan of South Africa. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2010. iii PRODUCT DESCRIPTION Results and Findings This report provides cost and performance data on renewable resource based technologies such as wind, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, and biomass, fossil fuel based technologies such as pulverized coal, fluidized bed combustion, Integrated coal gasification combined cycle, open cycle gas turbine, combined cycle gas turbine and nuclear technologies. The Department of Energy, South Africa is in the process of evaluating these technologies for future (2015-2030) capacity additions and the data in this report will facilitate Integrated resource Plan process of South Africa.

4 Challenges and Objectives Power Generation technologies are on the threshold of efficiency improvements, while at the same time, the question of capital and operating costs of new units is somewhat uncertain due to the impact of a global market demand competing for the same resources. This makes a comparative assessment of these technologies with a consistent approach to the cost and performance analysis essential to a Power Generation company s strategy for fleet transition from older to newer units. The objective of this report is to address these challenges and provide data on technologies in a consistent manner. Applications, Values, and Use This study is part of EPRI s ongoing work to address Technology improvements and monitor cost and performance of developing and mature technologies. EPRI Perspective While EPRI promotes collaborative research amongst members, specific reports tailored to the individual countries, helps EPRI staff to collaborate closely with the member staff and gain perspective on unique situations where the technologies may be deployed.

5 This perspective can then be translated into a much broader collaborative effort to benefit all members. Approach This report utilized from past EPRI research in Power Generation technologies cost and performance along with EPRI staff expertise to translate existing estimates to South African conditions. The final report will be published end of May 2010. Keywords Power Generation Nuclear v Wind Turbines Solar Thermal Photovoltaic Biomass Pulverized coal Fluidized bed combustion Integrated coal gasification combined cycle Open cycle gas turbine Gas turbine combined cycle vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Department of Energy, South Africa is in the process of preparing an Integrated resource plan (IRP). The DOE South Africa has stipulated that the data included in the IRP must be obtained from an independent source. To obtain this independently sourced data , the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) was approached to provide Technology data for new Power plants that would be included in their IRP.

6 Because the project requires a quick turn-around of cost and performance data for a number of Power Generation technologies applicable to South African conditions and environments, a comprehensive analysis developed with ground-up estimates was not feasible. However, estimates pertinent to South African conditions were developed based on a compilation of existing US and international databases and adjustments based on third party vendor indices and EPRI in-house expertise. The scope of EPRI s effort includes presenting the capital cost, operations and maintenance (O&M) cost, and performance data , as well as a comprehensive discussion and description of each Technology . Costs are reported in January 2010 South African Rand. Even as the recession was significantly impacting most of the US economy in 2008 and 2009, prices of many Power plant-related materials and equipment continued to increase into early 2009.

7 While most sectors of the economy experienced recession and factory shutdowns, the existing contracts and heavy backlog from 2008 kept manufacturers and suppliers of Power plant equipment operating at near peak capacity. Major equipment ordered in 2007 and 2008 with one year to two year lead times have kept Power plant manufacturing facilities busy at least up to the present time. The growth in escalation rates in the Power plant sector was sustained by the orders from 2007 and early 2008 for materials and equipment for new Power plants; Power plant emission control system retrofits; craft labor contracts negotiated in 2007 with 4% to 5% annual escalation clauses for 2008 (and in some cases for 2008 and 2009); and the multi-billion dollar refinery expansion projects. There are mixed signs regarding utility Power plant costs with significant declines in the price of steel plate and structural steel on the one hand and continuing escalation of major equipment on the other hand.

8 The volatility of markets makes it difficult for utility personnel to keep up with the changes. For example, in the second quarter of 2009, the price of solar panels dropped by about 40% to 50% from the level in 2008 due to various market factors such as recession in the US and Europe, increased manufacturing capacity and excess inventory. However, the overall installation cost, including other material and labor, has come down only marginally (5-8%). vii Because of the drastic change in economic scenario from the high cost escalation in 2004-2008 time period to a global (except in China and India) recession in 2009, the rationale for the costs presented in this report is as follows: Estimates (constant January 2010) represent composite material and labor cost estimates from mid-2009. These values are expected to hold good for planning purposes for projects that would have a first year commercial service date in 2015-2020 time frame.

9 The preliminary indications of a drop in escalation in the first and second quarter 2009 from published sources is expected to be a temporary phenomena and the price of commodities and labor is expected to revert back to December 2008 levels by mid-late 2010. Project executions in the US are expected to revive in the fourth quarter 2010 and the on-going projects in cash rich China and India are expected to stabilize the 2008 year end price levels in late 2010. The cost and performance estimates included in this report are based on conceptual level of effort idealized for representative generating units at appropriate South Africa locations and have been normalized where possible to produce a consistent database. However, site-specific and company-specific conditions dictate design and cost variations that require a much higher level of effort and is not reflected here. In developing these estimates, an effort was made to forecast probable capital expenditures associated with commercial-scale Technology projects.

10 Cost estimating is, however, part science and part art; it relies heavily on current and past data and on project execution plans, which are based on a set of assumptions. The successful outcome of any project project completion within the cost estimate depends on adherence to an execution plan and the assumptions without deviation. These estimates represent the ongoing Technology monitoring effort at EPRI to update the current Technical Assessment Guide (TAG ) database and information. EPRI s TAG Program has been providing cost and performance status and market trends of Power Generation technologies for over three decades and is considered a reliable source of data for future capacity planning by US industry personnel as well as by regulators involved in the resource planning and approval process. Estimate Result Uncertainties Uncertainties exist both in the baseline US Gulf Coast estimates as well as in the adjustment factors used to develop South African cost and performance estimates.


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