REVISED EDITION Clausewitzian Friction an dFuture …

1 MCNAIR PAPER68 Institute for national Strategic StudiesNational defense UniversityClausewitzianFriction andFutureWarREVISED EDITIONBARRY D. WATTS Clausewitzian Friction and future WarWATTSR ecent titles in the McNairPaper series:67 Oil for the Lamps ofChina Beijing s 21stCentury Search for EnergyBernard D. Cole66 Europe s New SecurityVocationMichael J. Brenner65 Agricultural Bioterrorism:A Federal Strategy toMeet the ThreatHenry S. Parker64 The Strategic Implicationsof a Nuclear-Armed IranKori N. Schake andJudith S. Yaphe63 All Possible Wars?Toward a Consensus Viewof the future SecurityEnvironment, 2001 2025 Sam J.

2 TangrediClausewitzianFriction and FutureWarREVISED EDITIONF riction is an inevitable impedi-ment to effective action and wasa significant factor in war longbefore Clausewitz popularizedthe term. Modern observers,however, have speculated thattechnological advances willreduce, if not eliminate, Watts addresses threequestions about Friction in theinformation age: Could it beamenable to solutions? If it is infact enduring, could the effectsof Friction be reduced in futureconflicts? And do advances inwarfighting demand revision ofClausewitz s original concept?

3 To answer these questions, Wattsclarifies the notion of Friction inClausewitz by reviewing its evo-lution and extending the matureconcept. He then subjects theconcept to the test of empiricalevidence, using the Persian GulfWar to show the persistence offriction in recent times. To ex-plore the more complex issue offriction in future conflicts, theauthor offers three indirect argu-ments for its undiminished per-sistence. Finally, he exploits thenotion of nonlinearity to recon-struct Clausewitz s concept inmodern McN 10/13/04 2:57 PM Page 1 About the AuthorBarry D.

4 Watts is a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and BudgetaryAssessments, where he specializes in air power issues, Air Force transformation,and the military use of space. From 2001 to 2002, Watts headed the Office of ProgramAnalysis and Evaluation in the Department of defense . Previously, he directed theNorthrop Grumman Analysis Center, where he had served after retiring from the AirForce with the rank of lieutenant colonel. From 1991 to 1993, Watts headed a study ofoperations and effectiveness as part of the Gulf War Air Power Survey. His publica-tions include The Foundations of Air Doctrine: The Problem of Friction in War(Air University Press, 1984) and The Military Use of Space: A Diagnostic Assessment(Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2001).

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9 In addition, it produces Joint Force Quarterly, aprofessional military journal published for the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of McN 10/13/04 2:57 PM Page 2 ClausewitzianFriction and future WarRevised EditionBarry D. WattsMcNair Paper 68 INSTITUTE FOR national STRATEGIC STUDIESNATIONAL defense UNIVERSITYWASHINGTON, opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied withinare those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of defense or any other agency of the Federal Government.

10 Thispublication is cleared for public release; distribution of this work may be quoted or reprinted without further permis-sion, with credit to the Institute for national Strategic Studies. A courtesy copy ofany reviews and tearsheets would be printing, October 1996, McNair Paper 52 REVISED EDITION , August 2004 For sale by the Government Printing Office. To order, contactSuperintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, 20402 9328(ISSN 1071-7552)ContentsPreface to the REVISED to the First 1 The Once and future Problem ..1 Chapter 2 Development of the Unified 3 Clarity about War as It Actually 4 The Mature Clausewitzian Concept.