Solid-State Lighting R&D Plan - Energy

1 Solid-State LightingR&D PlanMay 2015 Prepared for: Solid-State Lighting ProgramBuilding Technologies OfficeOffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Department of EnergyDOE/EE-1228R&D plan Page 1 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United states Government. Neither the United states Government, nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, nor any of their contractors, subcontractors, or their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.

2 Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United states Government or any agency, contractor, or subcontractor thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United states Government or any agency thereof. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The document should be referenced as: DOE SSL Program, "R&D plan ," prepared by Bardsley Consulting, SB Consulting, SSLS, Inc.

3 , LED Lighting Advisors, and Navigant Consulting, Inc., May 2015. Authors Norman Bardsley Bardsley Consulting Stephen Bland SB Consulting Monica Hansen LED Lighting Advisors Lisa Pattison SSLS, Inc. Morgan Pattison SSLS, Inc. Kelsey Stober Navigant Consulting, Inc. Mary Yamada Navigant Consulting, Inc. R&D plan Page 2 Executive Summary The Solid-State Lighting (SSL) revolution signals a profound shift in how we will use and consider Lighting and represents a huge opportunity to generate significant Energy savings. The Energy being used for Lighting represents a significant portion of global Energy use. Rising electricity prices, mounting concerns about climate change, and desire for Energy independence are causing the global Lighting market to shift toward more Energy -efficient light sources.

4 In most regions of the world, even with government policy support, a small fraction, less than 10%, of existing Lighting installations use SSL products. For example, Strategies Unlimited estimates that in 2014, light-emitting diode (LED)-based lamps comprised just 5% of unit sales and achieved 3% penetration of the installed base [1]. Nevertheless, they forecast dramatic growth in this market such that by 2020 LED-based lamps would comprise 42% of unit sales and represent 33% of the installed base. Other forecasts also anticipate extraordinary growth over the next 5 to 10 years. By any measure these are dramatic growth projections and present significant challenges for the industry. These challenges include further efficiency improvement, continued price reduction, manufacturing scale-up, and the integration of new value and features that can accelerate adoption and provide further Energy savings.

5 Addressing these challenges also offers the the opportunity to secure a dominant role in the technology and manufacturing of these products. In the , LED Lighting is forecasted to account for the majority of installations by 2030, representing 88% of the lumen-hours being generated by general illumination [2]. The high efficacy of SSL sources is a critical factor in the drive for higher adoption. LED Lighting is already as efficient, or more efficient, than most incumbent technologies, but there is plenty more to come. Using fairly conservative projections for performance improvements, the Department of Energy (DOE) has determined that by 2030, LED technology can potentially save 261 terawatt-hours (TWh) annually, a 40% reduction of the site electricity consumption forecasted for a counter-factual no-LED scenario.

6 Assuming the more aggressive projections, outlined in this report, can be realized through continuing investment in Research and Development (R&D), the total annual savings would increase to 395 TWh by 2030, a 60% reduction of the site electricity consumption [2]. This electricity savings corresponds to about quads of primary source Energy , which is nearly twice the projected electricity generation of wind power and twenty times that of solar power in 2030. At an average R&D plan Page 3 commercial price of $ , this would correspond to an annual dollar savings of about $40 billion [2]. However, in order to reach the performance levels assumed in this analysis, substantial improvements to efficacy and pricing are necessary. This underscores the importance of SSL and SSL R&D in any discussion of Energy policy, due to its unprecedented opportunity to reduce Energy consumption, thereby improving domestic Energy security, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

7 The DOE has set some tough targets and fashioned its program to remove technology barriers and accelerate adoption. DOE support is essential to achieving the 200 lumens per watt (lm/W) luminaire efficacy program goal by 2020, reducing SSL manufacturing costs, and realizing huge Energy savings. To achieve these goals and maintain the pace of development of the underlying LED and organic light-emitting diode (OLED) device technologies, the DOE advocates continuous focus on R&D. It is already apparent that improvements in LED package efficacy are becoming harder to achieve, and R&D is required to address fundamental technological barriers such as current efficiency droop and the need to develop new high efficiency, narrow line-width down-converter materials.

8 Still, SSL offers so much more than just improved efficacy. It represents a huge opportunity to improve the performance and value of Lighting through enhanced controllability, new functionality, and novel form factors. SSL sources are inherently dimmable and instantaneously controllable; they can be readily integrated with sensor and control systems, thus enabling further Energy savings through the use of occupancy sensing, daylight harvesting, and local control of light levels. SSL is at the heart of recent innovation in the Lighting industry with respect to smart, connected, intelligent, and adaptive Lighting . New functionality within the Lighting system can create added value by providing optimal Lighting for the occupants and the tasks being performed through real-time controls, programmed sensor-driven responses, or learning algorithms.

9 The high speed modulation capability of semiconductor light sources has introduced new opportunities in the area of visible light communications, such as Li-Fi and indoor positioning capabilities. SSL offers the prospect of full color control over the light spectrum and will enable precise control over the delivery of light to reduce glare, reduce stray light, and optimize useful light. Control over the light spectrum is creating new opportunities in areas as diverse as horticulture and human health. Understandably, most LED Lighting technology to date has been engineered to address the near term market opportunities in the form of replacement lamps and retrofit luminaires. With an estimated 40 billion sockets in the world, these form factors clearly represent an enormous market and Energy savings opportunity, but moving beyond these form factors will expand the concept of Lighting and create entirely new Lighting paradigms.

10 Similarly, OLEDs offer a whole new approach to Lighting based on their low illuminance, thin profile, and potential for surface shaping. R&D plan Page 4 Inevitably, the discussion of SSL often focuses on first cost as one of the main barriers to adoption. Excellent progress has been made over the past year for both LED and OLED technologies. LED package prices are down to $1/klm and OLED panels are down to $200/klm. The LED-based dimmable A19 60W-equivalent replacement lamp has dropped below $10 ($11/klm), still more expensive than conventional incandescent and compact fluorescent (CFL) lamps, but rebates and incentives can further reduce price to below $5. Market factors heavily influence prices, and the A19 replacement lamp remains the most competitive product sector while other products have shown less dramatic price reductions.