THE CONNECTED AIRCRAFT: Improving Dispatch …

1 GEE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONSTHE CONNECTED aircraft : Improving Dispatch ReliablityPRESENTED TOWorld Maintenance SymposiumSeptember 23, 2015Dr. Tulinda LarsenVice President, Commercial Operational Excellence is critical for consistent airline profitability and employee means that anything that gets in the way of operational excellence must be dealt with (Gordon Bethune, 2010)DISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYYet, globally .. 1 out of every 3 flights arrives more than 5 minutes late 1 out of 10 flights arrives more than 30 minutes late 1 out of every 100 departures cancels altogetherDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYD efinition.

2 Dispatch reliability is percentage of flights that depart within a specific window after the scheduled departure timeMeasuring Dispatch reliability varies by world region Europe & North America 15 minutes after the scheduled time for flight departures and an allowance of 14 minutes (A14) after the scheduled arrival timeMiddle East and Asia For example Emirates uses +/ 15 minutes not A14 DISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITY When measuring Dispatch Reliability, airlines excludenon aircraft issues such as severe weather, air traffic control congestion, and delays driven by airport security.

3 But .. real time aircraft data streaming from a CONNECTED aircraft can lead to better management of uncontrollable events through improved planning for and management of severe weather conditions and air traffic control congestionDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITY Average Dispatch reliability across the fleet operated by major US airlines was 79% on average from 2003 today An average of 80% of flights had an on time gate arrival The average gate departure delay was minutes, and the average gate arrival delay was minutes When flights were delayed more than 15 minutes, the average delay was 55 minutes 60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%Jun 03 Nov 03 Apr 04 Sep 04 Feb 05 Jul 05 Dec 05 May 06 Oct 06 Mar 07 Aug 07 Jan 08 Jun 08 Nov 08 Apr 09 Sep 09 Feb 10 Jul 10 Dec 10 May 11 Oct 11 Mar 12 Aug 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Nov 13 Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15US Carrier Dispatch Reliability Averaged 79%Source.

4 FAA ASPM Data Set (2003 2015)n = million flight recordsOn Time Departure RateDispatch ReliabilityLinear ( Dispatch Reliability)DISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYD ispatch reliability on a trailing twelve month average basis. illustrates, both positive and negative trends 2004 2007, US carriers increased capacity, resulting in increasing delays and gate holds due to crowded ramp areas, congested taxiways and airspace delays 2008 2012, a combination of lower capacity and relatively benign winter weather contributed to a significant improvement in Dispatch reliability.

5 2013 through present, major US carriers attribute the clear decline in Dispatch reliability to increased severity in winter and summer weather conditions and deteriorating operational performance due to factors such as crew scheduling70%72%74%76%78%80%82%84%86%Jun 04 Oct 04 Feb 05 Jun 05 Oct 05 Feb 06 Jun 06 Oct 06 Feb 07 Jun 07 Oct 07 Feb 08 Jun 08 Oct 08 Feb 09 Jun 09 Oct 09 Feb 10 Jun 10 Oct 10 Feb 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Oct 12 Feb 13 Jun 13 Oct 13 Feb 14 Jun 14 Oct 14 Feb 15 Jun 15 aircraft Dispatch Relibility.

6 Trailing Twelve Months, All US AirportsSource: FAA ASPM Data Set (2003 2015)n = million flight recordsTrailing On Time Departure RateTrailing Dispatch Reliability2008 2012 Improving2004 2007 Deteriorating2013 2015 DeterioratingDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYIn the United States, about 1 out of every 5 flights is unreliable About 2/3 of late or cancelled operations are due to weather and airspace conditions But 1/3 of delays and cancellations are due to factors within an airline s control, such as: aircraft are not available due to maintenance problems Crew legality, exceeds allowable flight time Flight crews that time out due to limits on duty days, or that are out of position due to late inbound flights or missed connections Lack of airport equipment or gate space to handle flights Passenger service issues, such as baggage transfer.

7 IT problems or catering issuesDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYF light cancellations one component of Dispatch reliability varies by aircraft type and causeDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYCost Of Cancellations Are Significant And Vary By Type of AirlineCost per Cancelled Flight Segment (USD2014)Controllable Events( maintenance, crew)Uncontrollable Events( weather, airspace)Regional JetsIncluding CRJ, ERJ aircraft $2,750 per flight$1,050 per flightLegacy NarrowbodiesBoeing 737 and Airbus 320families by legacy airlines$15,650 per flight$4,930 per flightLCC NarrowbodiesBoeing 737 and Airbus 320families by LCC/ULCC airlines$19,240 per flight$710 per flightSmall WidebodiesBoeing 767/787 and Airbus 330on 8-hr international routes$29,690 per flight$6,770 per flightLarge WidebodiesBoeing 777/747 and Airbus 340 on 12-hr international routes$42,890 per flight$13.

8 140 per flightAverage Cost Based on weighted average of events across fleets$5,770 average per cancelled flight segmentBased on masFlight study of flight cancellation costs (supporting data sourced from DOT BTS Form 41, OAG)DISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYL ooking at a Global Airline over the past 2 years .. a total of million flights were scheduled, approximately 57,000 flights were cancelled, and 9,650 flights were diverted. Of the scheduled flights: aircraft AVAILABLITYA ircraft availability is defined as all required maintenance is accomplished and the aircraft is airworthy, as defined by the regulationsWhen an aircraft is either scheduled for maintenance or is not available due to unscheduled maintenance, it cannot perform revenue flight segmentsAircraft availability is measured based on a percentage of daysAIRCRAFT AVAILABLITYTo quantify the root causes of aircraft availability issues.

9 The number of maintenance down days needs to be categorized into two broad categories:Scheduled Maintenance (Planned)Airframe Line MaintenanceAirframe Heavy MaintenanceEngine MaintenanceRefurbishment ActivitiesUnscheduled Maintenance (Unplanned)Systems or Components InoperativeDamage repairEmergency Airworthiness DirectiveAIRCRAFT AVAILABLITYAs with Dispatch reliability, it is essential that airlines have access to availability information consistently and accurately to provide a baseline of data for trend identification and predictive analyticsDISMAL Dispatch RELIABLITYIn summary.

10 Dispatch reliability is a key metric with broad implications for operational profitability A maintenance fault that resulting in controllable flight cancellation can drive $35,000 or more of net cost to an airline even after taking into account operational cost savings Each cancellation triggers a chain of events that creates real operational complexities for an airline The potential benefits from CONNECTED aircraft are material using real time aircraft data to prevent even one annual flight cancellation per aircraft justifies Inflight Connectivity (IFC)