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1 UNCLASSIFIEDAD NUMBERAD258634 NEW LIMITATION CHANGETOA pproved for public release, distributionunlimitedFROMD istribution authorized to Gov' and their contractors;Administrative/Operational Use; MAR requests shall be referred to Bureauof Ordnance [Navy], Washington, DC ltr dtd 19 Jan 1966 THIS PAGE IS UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSI FIEDAD 2586534 ARM~I'., SERVICES TECHNICAL IKNKMMAM EUARLIPIO1N HALL STA11 MARLI GTN 12, VIRGNIAU NCLASSIFIEDD LAIMEI NOTICETHIS DOCUMENT IS BESTQUALITY AVAILABLE. THE COPYFURNISHED TO DTIC CONTAINEDA SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OFPAGES WHICH DO NOTREPRODUCE : 'en goverimnt or other draving , speci-fications or other data are used for any purposeother the in connection vith a definitely relatedgoverzent procuent operation, the U. Lhereby incurs no responsibility, nor anyoblilption %httsoever; end the fact that the Govern-unt my have oadatedp fuzalahedq or in ay ,mysupplied th.

2 Sad dre '.ngs, specifications, or otherdata it not to be regAded by isplication or otber-vise as in an unner liensin the bolder or anyother person or corporation, or conveying my rightsor permisioc to maftcture, use or sell anypatented InyAimn that my in any va be "lG 3T 6march :961 Copy NoSURFACE-TO-AIR GUIDED MISSILE. SYSTEMSMETHODS OF TACTICAL ANALYSISCyIN. C. WsddilL ABOP ()/'TG 396'imb 196 SUFACE-TO-AE OI ESSUL SYSTEMSMETNUIS OF TACTICAL ANALYSISN. C. WaiSWA S T IA,r r *, I"-"-)JUN ~~lfwl %A#Wai PH *=8 L~g MAs WAPREFACEThe pres nrt volume deals witt'h the trctleal ':taysisof suriace-to-ali, missile s,,.stems;. It is intended to providea general introduction to the basic problems arising In suchanalyses, and to sugeest techniques uLeful in their !egretfully, all problems concerned with the poasible defeatof surface-to-air missile systems by neans or electronic coun-termeasures have Intentionally been omit1%.

3 D fron the discussion;appropriate treatment of covia vi-mcasurez ic not possible it anunclassified material here summarized has from woriccarried out by the Division oi' the Applied PhysicsLaboratory and by maj .'.. organizations, over a period ofyeurs, with frequent interchug;e of ideas both in persoral dis-cussions and by writter. report. Consequently it Is usuallydifficult and frequently Imposcible to determine aid ascribe credits fur particular parts of thematerlal, For this reazon, attempt is made here to do so.'In preparing this vu&.ie, tne cuthor har drawn hawiiyupon UNCLASSIFIED parts of an earlier -laslfied work, 1aetisalAnalysis of Surface-to-Air uied Miscue jystIs, compi 1bythe Asessment Division of the Laboratory. Indeed, the presentvolume may be thought of as an UNCLASSIFIED revision of the ear-l1er work. The author is Indebted to those who compled theearlier work and to many in the DIvYsior who reviewed and com-mented upon the present -Nm sS.

4 TABLE OF CONTENTSC hapter I Tactical AnalysisA. Introduction ..2. Need for Tactical Analysis ..1C. TypicalAlrIDatl .. B .. 3D. Problems ur Tactical Analysis ..6 Cliapter 1I SAM yoem Chracteri~ticzA. Introductiuzi .. 'em IFUn:..C. Sign!f1cariz. Tim-i ..**. ** ** 9D. 'Tiux L. ervals .., .. iiChapter iii Kill ProbabilityA. lnrxduction .. * .. 21B. Definitionl of Kill Probability .. 3C. Kill Probability of an Operable Niclale .. 26D. Ouldance Accuracy ..27B. Fuzina Accuracy ..* 0 ..V.. ltlinal Kill robability ..300. Calculation of the Kill Probability' oL an Operable Nizalle ..0go Lotto VXethod ..* *I. Analytic Kvaltatiw of the Integral .. o o2J. Salvo Kill Prvbsbility ..55K. Kill Probablilty Against Poimatlons .. , *..56 Chapter IV FirepowererA. Introduction ..65o. Single Firine Unit -etdlal Attuck o..a o 65C. Wave Attack ..D. Contlnuu Approximation ..70: .N. on ,lnujuu; Approximition Pontuau.

5 70Y, Exnln o .. 70 Chapter IV (Cont'd)G. Meazw and DIspervions ..'(5Hi. Integral Formulas ..741. Alternate ..75J. Graphical Integration.. Attack .. 6I,.'v Graphlcal 10mputing Methods.. FIsvIng Usit -croalng Attack .. 811!. Wave Attack ..810. Integral Represeniation ..8511. Stream Attack ..85Q. Graphical ComputlIng [ethods .. Circular Deployment..9 Chapter V Coordination of~ .. 94C. JDeriva'AIons of Formulas..99 Chapter VI 31mulationA. FiringJDoctrine..112B. Firing Doctrine In Relation to Coordinationh .. Carl') ..Di. Characteristics of an Air Battle '4odelfor Simulation ..# .* 4 # ..114E. A Particular Air B~attle 31mulation .. 115F~. MXodifi cat Ions to the Simulation ..12G. Critical ef Monte Carlo Method ..123H. A Manual Simulacor ..127 Chapter VII Neasures of EffectivenessA. Choice or Measure.. 3B. JsefIul iNeasures or ErLectivenca.. eft I MSO0YC!]

6 APTER ITactical AnalysisA. IntroductionBefore proceeding with the primarl purpose of this book, thedlscusslon of methods of tactical analysic of guided missile systems, itwll be well to consider briefly the iteedo for such analy;:. and what isto be anal, "ead for Tactical AnalysisA major need for tactical tnalyzI's Ic in the development of newweapon 3ystemu. The role tactical als:Is plays in such a developmentcar. perhaps best Le berouht out by t:,acir,: : Lypical development general, this procecz is !teratlve and can lbe conveniently representedby a multl-loop feed-back di,7amr as showt In .' lgure FO3P YST9 IXALE ~0I~TOPERATIONAL REQIRA .TSIBOUNDARY. COITIONSTATES OF ARTM THRATOPERATIONAL RETRICTIOIS .ODIiLMD RESTRICTIONI PRELI!T7:ARi DESIGN HEMSIGEVALU&TIONFASIBILITYEFFECTIV'.rESS COSTSERVICE USE-1-. -APPM O mABTMIThe loops are uravcrsed ral times in the process, as a con-se-luence of the many Interactlon.

7 ; of all the factors Involved in the process may start In any of . different p accs, for example, .:ithan operational requiremcnt, cr in an advancL in the state of a tee'-nicalart, or ..ith a threat analy.:in, or ,hps w:it:. some exiting systemi o:d(.r to 'be t h duvelopment pocesrs in greater detail,suppose that It starts ..th zn (I-:itial: broad) .tatement W^ the need fora systcm. ansoljrIng the qu,.ns*zon: What do ": wish to do? lik:. must comea listing of the , .dtivr. :!it~ng; that 1s: Where are we now?The boundary conditions (ude :t. i -.:iv .hu varlou: , thet choraeturt' ti t..hr,,eat t3 i ,et and th various oper-ational restrict luan that n. o1t-.!n. With ans. ecr- to these two questions:Where do ;.e ,o? anu 1Th .r: are we? tn. next :;t,-;; is to one or morepreliminary system d,:ipn:: ..hib ua'e . t. fill the need. Each ofthese designs must the1.))

8 To d'~ .:hethe:, it is feasiblefrom all points of vie u and i:he'. i't ind'.k-l fCille the stated need effec-tively and at r.:asonuble ciuzt ir. runurceu .The result"s of the cvaluationare thn f d back as Indle:tee in th. :'iu'e, lfg drng, on the ne:zt circuit,to refined system and to th-Ir Is in the evaluation 'e of she d-.\Velopment process thattactical analysis enters. ii partlvular. a me 'ure of thv each proposzd syst:m Is a !;roduit of .aocal anilsis of the system asa whole, operatine in the zpe:Ifled ..ironmerLt aga_'nt the specified results of th. tactical anlyjes may be put to svveral uses. First,they form the basis.; for a comparison of system designs. Theymay suggest changes or improvements In thB system leading to redesign ofthe system, and pirhakps to further ,arch in order to improve the stateof an applicable art. They may anggest ehoges in the expected threat thatwould result from an enay'u rcactio.

9 To the introduction cf the proposedsystem in service use. Thcy may suggest changes in the operating restrictionsassumed. Finally th,.y may suggest charkes in the operational req, irement;that is, the neA rur or o fC the the early stage. of the process the system designwill usually be simpl, .'ith little d:tail speuified. The correspondingtactical aralysis: mu:' of he re!lativly crude nd simple, owingto the lack of suf'Ciotly co:nj.;5e system dt' .1t*Ion. As the system designis reflned on stccv.:;ive clr'lut. oCr the leo.,, thv tactical mustb .- 'ined to deal ith nt. gr:at,-r dvtail o, the design. Gross appro imations must be replacd by mor- pr', ,. PlSO tAi ATOYIt systvm, in very n,;l terms, is a comulux of pooul., orgarized to onu or ;reor; functions. It i3 made up of,zany subuystems which ixt.,act ,;th eauh othtr and w:ith thu syzteni d. sign muut sp cfy -0, only what the system will consist of butalno ho.

10 : I. will optra.:-, .:hat ,. irnt:,ac'.! , ..' ,, 8Xd theirr"atAULo.,, to ,;xt--r".1 lnv ,s will be. Ea:21y in the de-v,.Iot_,.nt proe~sz, ana!..i; dals primarily with predictions ofw41)LL thu -vm .4I , ,..4) .. , .ionz foL' chon,., couming out of the analysis,will nost oft.:n " i .aUi":-ant it.:vlf. A:: th.: d'v;lepment process1) '-jo :'- " ..' ..' yh .p!.; will have tak,:.n physical Con-soquunIily L:, the lat-., ta *':_,,." " aialys". ":11 nore often aff,.;ct leld down :v,. o .t..f s;':', .Tactical -;un !,*. of Z.,:a.; h,1p tci nllitaLr, ;tla-ner as~:.l as to .iea: o:s syst-m J .'The strat'. ic p arner, In decidirg howbest to achieve a ml1 Itar. cbjs,;tiv:: .an from the results oftactical analysis. *:Ihat .ieaponc will be most uffective. What forces willbe required? Tactical analyses can assist the procurement platmer in deter-mining :.huat jurItties of weapons to purchase.