To Explain or to Predict?

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Statistical Science2010, Vol. 25, No. 3, 289 310 Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010To Explain or to Predict? Galit modeling is a powerful tool for developing and testingtheories by way of causal explanation, prediction, and description. In manydisciplines there is near-exclusive use of statistical modeling for causal ex-planation and the assumption that models with high explanatory power areinherently of high predictive power. Conflation between explanation and pre-diction is common, yet the distinction must be understood for progressingscientific knowledge.

explanatory and predictive modeling, and also to high-light the different approaches of statisticians and non-statisticians. 1.4 The Scientific Value of Predictive Modeling Although explanatory modeling is commonly used for theory building and testing, predictive modeling is nearly absent in many scientific fields as a tool for de-veloping ...

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