Measuring Geopolitical Risk - Federal Reserve

vector autoregressive (VAR) models estimated on U.S. data, we nd that an increase in geopolitical risk induces persistent declines in industrial production, employment, and international trade, and that both economic policy uncertainty and consumer con dence enhance the transmission of geopo-litical risk shocks.

  Federal, Reserve, Model, Vector, Federal reserve, Autoregressive, Vector autoregressive