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An Assessment of CES and Cobbs-Douglas Production Functions

An Assessment of CES and Cobb-Douglas ProductionFunctions1 Eric MillerE-mail: Budget OfficeJune 20082008-051 Working papers in this series are preliminary and are circulated to stimulate discussion andcritical comment. These papers are not subject to CBO s formal review and editing analysis and conclusions expressed in them are those of the authors and should not beinterpreted as those of the Congressional Budget Office. References in publications shouldbe cleared with the author. Papers in this series can be obtained at (selectPublications and then Working Papers). I would like to thank Bob Arnold, Juan Contreras,Bob Dennis, Matthew Goldberg, Angelo Mascaro, Delciana Winders, and Thomas Woodwardfor helpful paper surveys the empirical and theoretical literature on macroeconomic productionfunctions and assesses whether the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) or the Cobb-Douglas specification is more appropriate for use in the CBO s macroeconomic Cobb-Douglas s major strengths are its ease of use and its seemingly good

forecast potential output and the medium-term outlook for income shares. Addition-ally, several of the models that the CBO uses to analyze policy changes, such as the multisector Aiyagari (1994) model and the overlapping generations model, assume that aggregate output in the economy can be described by a production technology.1

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