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CHAPTER 3 DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

CHAPTER 3 DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 35 CHAPTER 3 DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 1. INTRODUCTION TO FORECASTING ..36 2. IMPORTANCE OF AIR CARGO FORECASTING ..37 a. Market DEMAND ..38 b. Facility and Infrastructure DEMAND ..38 3. ELEMENTS OF AIR CARGO FORECASTING ..39 a. Air Cargo DEMAND ..40 b. Air Cargo Services and Other Supply Factors ..41 c. Airport Traffic and Other Activity ..43 4. AIR CARGO DATA SOURCES ..43 a. General Sources for Traffic and b. International Cargo Flow c. Domestic Cargo Flow Sources ..45 d. Other Sources ..45 5. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES AND MODELS ..46 a. Collecting and Understanding the Data ..46 i. Current Aviation Industry and Cargo Trends ..46 ii. Catchment Area Socio-economic Data ..47 iii. Historical Air Service and Cargo Traffic Trends.

Forecasting is as much about common sense as it is about math. You cannot forecast effectively without using your judgment. Even the simplest trend analysis --that is, traffic grew by 5% last year, so the forecast calls for 5% growth this year --entails a judgment about whether it is reasonable to assume that past performance will be repeated.

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