Transcription of Economics Program Working Paper Series
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Economics Program Working Paper Series
Economics Program 845 Third Avenue New York, NY 10022-6600 Tel. 212-339-0420 Economics Program Working Paper Series Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for The Conference Board Leading economic Index for the United States Gad Levanon Ataman Ozyildirim Brian Schaitkin Justyna Zabinska The Conference Board December 2011 EPWP #11 06 1 Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions of The Conference Board Leading economic Index for the United States1 By Gad Levanon Ataman Ozyildirim Brian Schaitkin Justyna Zabinska The Conference Board December 2011 Abstract Following an extensive reevaluation of existing indicators included in The Conference Board Leading economic Index for The United States, we propose a comprehensive revision of the composite index. In this Paper we present the case for replacing three of the components and making a minor adjustment to one other component. The resulting index addresses structural changes that have occurred in the economy in the last several decades.
aside (which is discussed in the working paper mentioned above), our recommendations affect the following leading indicators (1) Manufacturing New Orders for (non-defense) Capital Goods, (2) ISM Index of Supplier Deliveries and, (3) Consumer Expectations.
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