Transcription of ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
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ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP. 5 February 2018. Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI). Pacific SST Outlook Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks Summary Summary ENSO Alert System Status : La Ni a Advisory La Ni a conditions are present.*. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni a is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*. * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here. Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST. Departures (oC). During January and February 2017, above-average SSTs expanded in the eastern Pacific Ocean. From mid April to July 2017, near-to- above average SSTs spanned most of the equatorial Pacific.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
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