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ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP. 5 February 2018. Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI). Pacific SST Outlook Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks Summary Summary ENSO Alert System Status : La Ni a Advisory La Ni a conditions are present.*. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. La Ni a is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring.*. * Note: These statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.

anomalies shifted eastward in association with two downwelling Kelvin waves. In July 2021, September 2021, and November 2021 negative subsurface temperature anomalies shifted eastward associated with three upwelling Kelvin waves. From mid-December 2021 through February 2022, a downwelling Kelvin wave shifted eastward.

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